TY - JOUR
T1 - A clinical prediction model for non-operative management failure in patients with high-grade blunt splenic injury
AU - Matsumoto, Shokei
AU - Aoki, Makoto
AU - Shimizu, Masayuki
AU - Funabiki, Tomohiro
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023
PY - 2023/10
Y1 - 2023/10
N2 - Background: Nonoperative management (NOM) is the standard treatment for hemodynamically stable blunt splenic injury (BSI). However, NOM failure is a significant source of morbidity and mortality. We developed a clinical risk scoring system for NOM failure in BSI. Methods: Data from the Japanese Trauma Data Bank from 2008 to 2018 were analyzed. Eligible patients were restricted to those who underwent NOM with high-grade BSI (Organ Injury Scale ≥3). The primary outcome was a predictive score for NOM failure based on risk estimation. Results: There were 1651 patients included in this analysis, among whom 110 (6.7%) patients had NOM failure. Multivariate analysis identified seven variables associated with failed NOM: systolic blood pressure, Glasgow coma scale, Injury Severity Score, other concomitant abdominal injury, pelvic injury, high-grade BSI, and angioembolization. An eight-point predictive score was developed with a cut-off of greater than 5 points (specificity, 98.2%; sensitivity, 25.5%) with an area under the curve of 0.81. Conclusion: The clinical predictive score had good ability to predict NOM failure and may help surgeons to make better decisions for BSI.
AB - Background: Nonoperative management (NOM) is the standard treatment for hemodynamically stable blunt splenic injury (BSI). However, NOM failure is a significant source of morbidity and mortality. We developed a clinical risk scoring system for NOM failure in BSI. Methods: Data from the Japanese Trauma Data Bank from 2008 to 2018 were analyzed. Eligible patients were restricted to those who underwent NOM with high-grade BSI (Organ Injury Scale ≥3). The primary outcome was a predictive score for NOM failure based on risk estimation. Results: There were 1651 patients included in this analysis, among whom 110 (6.7%) patients had NOM failure. Multivariate analysis identified seven variables associated with failed NOM: systolic blood pressure, Glasgow coma scale, Injury Severity Score, other concomitant abdominal injury, pelvic injury, high-grade BSI, and angioembolization. An eight-point predictive score was developed with a cut-off of greater than 5 points (specificity, 98.2%; sensitivity, 25.5%) with an area under the curve of 0.81. Conclusion: The clinical predictive score had good ability to predict NOM failure and may help surgeons to make better decisions for BSI.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20537
DO - 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20537
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85173243393
SN - 2405-8440
VL - 9
JO - Heliyon
JF - Heliyon
IS - 10
M1 - e20537
ER -