A Longitudinal HbA1c Model Elucidates Genes Linked to Disease Progression on Metformin

One-third of type-2 diabetic patients respond poorly to metformin. Despite extensive research, the impact of genetic and nongenetic factors on long-term outcome is unknown. In this study we combine nonlinear mixed effect modeling with computational genetic methodologies to identify predictors of long-term response. In all, 1,056 patients contributed their genetic, demographic, and long-term HbA1c data. The top nine variants (of 12,000 variants in 267 candidate genes) accounted for approximately one-third of the variability in the disease progression parameter. Average serum creatinine level, age, and weight were determinants of symptomatic response; however, explaining negligible variability. Two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CSMD1 gene (rs2617102, rs2954625) and one SNP in a pharmacologically relevant SLC22A2 gene (rs316009) influenced disease progression, with minor alleles leading to less and more favorable outcomes, respectively. Overall, our study highlights the influence of genetic factors on long-term HbA1c response and provides a computational model, which when validated, may be used to individualize treatment.