A model-based comparative meta-analysis of the efficacy of dolutegravir-based and efavirenz-based regimens in HIV-infected patients

Currently, combinations of typical types of antiretroviral agents have been adopted as chemotherapy for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, comprising two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors plus one of a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, an integrase strand-transfer inhibitor, and a protease inhibitor. Although several meta-analyses have been conducted to determine first-line combination antiretroviral therapy, this has yet to be confirmed due to the technical limitation associated. In the present study, we applied a model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) approach, because it allows integration of information from clinical trials with varying dosing, duration, and sampling time points, resulting in enlargement of available data sources. We performed a bibliographic search to identify clinical trials involving dolutegravir (DTG)-based and efavirenz (EFV)-based regimens in HIV-infected, antiretroviral therapy-naïve adults, and then identified 30 independent trial data. The time course of drug effect was described by a consecutive first-order kinetic model and analyzed using the nonlinear mixed effect modeling approach. The developed model suggests that the DTG-based regimen provides a faster-acting and more sustainable drug effect than the EFV-based regimen. Moreover, the drug effect tends to appear more slowly and decay faster in severe patients having higher viral load or smaller baseline CD4 count.