A point system for predicting 10-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus in japanese men

Aichi workers’ cohort study

Hiroshi Yatsuya, Enei Ri, Yoshihisa Hirakawa, Atsuhiko Ota, Masaaki Matsunaga, Hilawe Esayas Haregot, Chifa Chiang, Yan Zhang, Koji Tamakoshi, Hideaki Toyoshima, Atsuko Aoyama

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background: Relatively little evidence exists for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prediction models from long-term follow-up studies in East Asians. This study aims to develop a point-based prediction model for 10-year risk of developing T2DM in middle-aged Japanese men. Methods: We followed 3,540 male participants of Aichi Workers’ Cohort Study, who were aged 35–64 years and were free of diabetes in 2002, until March 31, 2015. Baseline age, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, medication for dyslipidemia, diabetes family history, and blood levels of triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) were examined using Cox proportional hazard model. Variables significantly associated with T2DM in univariable models were simultaneously entered in a multivariable model for determination of the final model using backward variable selection. Performance of an existing T2DM model when applied to the current dataset was compared to that obtained in the present study’s model. Results: During the median follow-up of 12.2 years, 342 incident T2DM cases were documented. The prediction system using points assigned to age, BMI, smoking status, diabetes family history, and TG and FBG showed reasonable discrimination (c-index: 0.77) and goodness-of-fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.22). The present model outperformed the previous one in the present subjects. Conclusion: The point system, once validated in the other populations, could be applied to middle-aged Japanese male workers to identify those at high risk of developing T2DM. In addition, further investigation is also required to examine whether the use of this system will reduce incidence.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)347-352
Number of pages6
JournalJournal of epidemiology
Volume28
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01-01-2018

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Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
Cohort Studies
Blood Glucose
Fasting
Triglycerides
Body Mass Index
Smoking
Dyslipidemias
Proportional Hazards Models
Alcohol Drinking
HDL Cholesterol
Exercise
Incidence
Population

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Epidemiology

Cite this

Yatsuya, Hiroshi ; Ri, Enei ; Hirakawa, Yoshihisa ; Ota, Atsuhiko ; Matsunaga, Masaaki ; Haregot, Hilawe Esayas ; Chiang, Chifa ; Zhang, Yan ; Tamakoshi, Koji ; Toyoshima, Hideaki ; Aoyama, Atsuko. / A point system for predicting 10-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus in japanese men : Aichi workers’ cohort study. In: Journal of epidemiology. 2018 ; Vol. 28, No. 8. pp. 347-352.
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abstract = "Background: Relatively little evidence exists for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prediction models from long-term follow-up studies in East Asians. This study aims to develop a point-based prediction model for 10-year risk of developing T2DM in middle-aged Japanese men. Methods: We followed 3,540 male participants of Aichi Workers’ Cohort Study, who were aged 35–64 years and were free of diabetes in 2002, until March 31, 2015. Baseline age, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, medication for dyslipidemia, diabetes family history, and blood levels of triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) were examined using Cox proportional hazard model. Variables significantly associated with T2DM in univariable models were simultaneously entered in a multivariable model for determination of the final model using backward variable selection. Performance of an existing T2DM model when applied to the current dataset was compared to that obtained in the present study’s model. Results: During the median follow-up of 12.2 years, 342 incident T2DM cases were documented. The prediction system using points assigned to age, BMI, smoking status, diabetes family history, and TG and FBG showed reasonable discrimination (c-index: 0.77) and goodness-of-fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.22). The present model outperformed the previous one in the present subjects. Conclusion: The point system, once validated in the other populations, could be applied to middle-aged Japanese male workers to identify those at high risk of developing T2DM. In addition, further investigation is also required to examine whether the use of this system will reduce incidence.",
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Yatsuya, H, Ri, E, Hirakawa, Y, Ota, A, Matsunaga, M, Haregot, HE, Chiang, C, Zhang, Y, Tamakoshi, K, Toyoshima, H & Aoyama, A 2018, 'A point system for predicting 10-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus in japanese men: Aichi workers’ cohort study', Journal of epidemiology, vol. 28, no. 8, pp. 347-352. https://doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20170048

A point system for predicting 10-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus in japanese men : Aichi workers’ cohort study. / Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Ri, Enei; Hirakawa, Yoshihisa; Ota, Atsuhiko; Matsunaga, Masaaki; Haregot, Hilawe Esayas; Chiang, Chifa; Zhang, Yan; Tamakoshi, Koji; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Aoyama, Atsuko.

In: Journal of epidemiology, Vol. 28, No. 8, 01.01.2018, p. 347-352.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T1 - A point system for predicting 10-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus in japanese men

T2 - Aichi workers’ cohort study

AU - Yatsuya, Hiroshi

AU - Ri, Enei

AU - Hirakawa, Yoshihisa

AU - Ota, Atsuhiko

AU - Matsunaga, Masaaki

AU - Haregot, Hilawe Esayas

AU - Chiang, Chifa

AU - Zhang, Yan

AU - Tamakoshi, Koji

AU - Toyoshima, Hideaki

AU - Aoyama, Atsuko

PY - 2018/1/1

Y1 - 2018/1/1

N2 - Background: Relatively little evidence exists for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prediction models from long-term follow-up studies in East Asians. This study aims to develop a point-based prediction model for 10-year risk of developing T2DM in middle-aged Japanese men. Methods: We followed 3,540 male participants of Aichi Workers’ Cohort Study, who were aged 35–64 years and were free of diabetes in 2002, until March 31, 2015. Baseline age, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, medication for dyslipidemia, diabetes family history, and blood levels of triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) were examined using Cox proportional hazard model. Variables significantly associated with T2DM in univariable models were simultaneously entered in a multivariable model for determination of the final model using backward variable selection. Performance of an existing T2DM model when applied to the current dataset was compared to that obtained in the present study’s model. Results: During the median follow-up of 12.2 years, 342 incident T2DM cases were documented. The prediction system using points assigned to age, BMI, smoking status, diabetes family history, and TG and FBG showed reasonable discrimination (c-index: 0.77) and goodness-of-fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.22). The present model outperformed the previous one in the present subjects. Conclusion: The point system, once validated in the other populations, could be applied to middle-aged Japanese male workers to identify those at high risk of developing T2DM. In addition, further investigation is also required to examine whether the use of this system will reduce incidence.

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