A Predictive Strategy for Nonsurgical Management of Pancreatic Stones

Objectives We set out to predict whether nonsurgical treatment is likely to succeed in removing pancreatic stones in a given patient and also to determine an optimal maximal number of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) sessions for treatment of pancreatolithiasis in that patient. Materials and Methods We ascertained the number of ESWL sessions for each of 164 patients undergoing that treatment for pancreatolithiasis between 1992 and 2020. Median follow-up duration was 31 months (range, 0-239), median age was 58 years (22-83), and the male to female ratio was 5.1:1.0. Patients were divided into 2 groups based upon an optimal maximal number of ESWL sessions determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results Total stone clearance was achieved in 130 of 164 patients (79%). The median number of ESWL sessions was 3 (1-61). Receiver operating characteristic analysis determined 7 to be the optimal maximal number of sessions. Complete clearance was more frequent (87%) among the 131 patients requiring 7 or fewer ESWL sessions than among the 33 undergoing more (48%, P < 0.001). Seventeen patients (52%) undergoing 8 or more sessions still had residual stones. Conclusions If any pancreatic stones persist after 7 ESWL sessions, we recommend transition to medical or surgical treatments.