Atrial Fibrillation Detection and Ischemic Stroke Recurrence in Cryptogenic Stroke: A Retrospective, Multicenter, Observational Study

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is known to be a strong risk factor for stroke. However, the risk of stroke recurrence in patients with cryptogenic stroke with AF detected after stroke by an insertable cardiac monitor (ICM) is not well known. We sought to evaluate the risk of ischemic stroke recurrence in patients with cryptogenic stroke with and without ICM-detected AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively reviewed patients with cryptogenic stroke who underwent ICM implantation at 8 stroke centers in Japan. Cox regression models were developed using landmark analysis and time-dependent analysis. We set the target sample size at 300 patients based on our estimate of the annualized incidence of ischemic stroke recurrence to be 3% in patients without AF detection and 9% in patients with AF detection. Of the 370 patients, 121 were found to have AF, and 110 received anticoagulation therapy after AF detection. The incidence of ischemic stroke recurrence was 4.0% in 249 patients without AF detection and 5.8% in 121 patients with AF detection (P=0.45). In a landmark analysis, the risk of ischemic stroke recurrence was not higher in patients with AF detected ≤90 days than in those without (hazard ratio, 1.47 [95% CI, 0.41–5.28]). In a time-dependent analysis, the risk of ischemic stroke recurrence did not increase after AF detection (hazard ratio, 1.77 [95% CI, 0.70–4.47]). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of ischemic stroke recurrence in patients with cryptogenic stroke with ICM-detected AF, 90% of whom were subsequently anticoagulated, was not higher than in those without ICM-detected AF.