Calculation of expected remaining lifetime of dialysis patients in Japan

Background: The expected remaining lifetime of dialysis patients in Japan was only reported in 2003 and has not been reported thereafter. From 2003 to the present, several new therapeutic agents have been introduced. These events may have improved outcomes for dialysis patients. Thus, expected remaining lifetime of dialysis patients in Japan was newly calculated in 2015. Methods: The Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy Renal Data Registry database was used for analyses. From this database, the following three indexes were compiled: the number of surviving dialysis patients (198,125 males and 111,962 females) at the end of 2014 and the number of surviving (179,649 males and 101,758 females) and dead (18,044 males and 111,417 females) patients at the end of 2015. Based on these values, expected remaining lifetime at 1-year increment was calculated using the life table method. Results: Excerpts of the calculated expected remaining lifetimes of patients aged 60 years were as follows: 11.9 years for males and 14.1 years for females. These expected remaining lifetimes were 1.1 to 1.2 times as compared with those in 2003. Meanwhile, expected remaining lifetime of diabetic patients was 10.8 years for males and 12.5 years for females and that of nondiabetic patients was 13.0 years for males and 15.0 years for females. Conclusion: Expected remaining lifetime of dialysis patients in Japan in 2015 was 10–20% longer than that in 2003. These results suggest that advances in dialysis technologies during this 12-year period improved the survival rate of dialysis patients.