Calibration between the estimated probability of the risk assessment chart of Japan atherosclerosis society and actual mortality using external population: Evidence for cardiovascular prevention from observational cohorts in Japan (EPOCH-JAPAN)

Michikazu Nakai, Yoshihiro Miyamoto, Aya Higashiyama, Yoshitaka Murakami, Kunihiro Nishimura, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Shigeyuki Saitoh, Kiyomi Sakata, Hiroyasu Iso, Katsuyuki Miura, Hirotsugu Ueshima, Tomonori Okamura, EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group The EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group, Hirotsugu Ueshima, Tomonori Okamura, Hirotsugu Ueshima, Yutaka Imai, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Fujiko Irie, Hiroyasu IsoAkihiko Kitamura, Yutaka Kiyohara, Katsuyuki Miura, Yoshitaka Murakami, Hideaki Nakagawa, Takeo Nakayama, Akira Okayama, Toshimi Sairenchi, Shigeyuki Saitoh, Kiyomi Sakata, Akiko Tamakoshi, Ichiro Tsuji, Michiko Yamada, Masahiko Kiyama, Yoshihiro Miyamoto, Shizukiyo Ishikawa, Tomonori Okamura

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Aim: In Japan Atherosclerosis Society guidelines for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2012 (JAS2012), NIPPON DATA80 risk assessment chart (ND80RAC) was adopted to estimate the 10-year probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality. However, there was no comparison between the estimated mortality calculated by ND80RAC and actual mortality in external populations. Accordingly, we used the large pooled database of cohorts in Japan, EPOCH-JAPAN, as an external population.Methods:The participants of EPOCH-JAPAN without a history of cardiovascular disease (15,091 men and 18,589 women aged 40–74 years) were analyzed based on sex. The probability of a 10-year risk of CAD/stroke mortality was estimated by ND80RAC. The participants were divided into both decile of their estimated mortality and three categories according to JAS2012. The calibration between the mean estimated mortality and the actual mortality was performed by the Hosmer and Lemeshow (H-L) test.Results: In both sexes, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality, particularly in higher deciles of estimated mortality, and the estimated stroke mortality was almost concordant with the actual mortality in low/moderate deciles of estimated mortality. As for the categories according to JAS2012, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality in both sexes; actual mortality in Category III was lower than that in Category II in women. However, it increased in the ascending order of category when we excluded the presence of diabetes from Category III.Conclusions: The estimated CAD mortality by ND80RAC tended to be higher than the actual mortality in the population in which the baseline survey was more recently performed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)176-195
Number of pages20
JournalJournal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis
Volume23
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01-02-2016

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Internal Medicine
  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
  • Biochemistry, medical

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