Background: Recent management after pancreatoduodenectomy recommends either omission of prophylactic drainage or early removal. This potentially makes the diagnosis of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) difficult because the diagnosis is based on the amylase value of drain effluent. The aim of this study was to determine if severe POPF could be predicted independent of drainage information. Methods: Records of consecutive patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy between 2012 and 2018 were included for further analysis. The presence of a peripancreatic collection (PC) on routine postoperative (day7) computed tomography (early CT) and perioperative characteristics were analyzed. Results: PC appeared in 82/211 patients (39%) and was associated with clinically relevant POPF (p < 0.001). The C-reactive protein (CRP) on postoperative day5 was a good predictor of severe POPF (needing interventional therapy or Grade C) (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.802; 95% confidence interval, 0.702–0.875). Presence of a PC and a high CRP value were independent risk factors for severe POPF following multivariate analysis. The combination of CRP<5.0 mg/dL on postoperative day 5 and the absence of a PC had 98% negative predictive value. Conclusion: The combination of CRP measurement and PC evaluation by early CT was useful in predicting severe POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy.
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