Decision Analysis of Postremission Therapy in Cytogenetically Intermediate-Risk Acute Myeloid Leukemia: The Impact of FLT3 Internal Tandem Duplication, Nucleophosmin, and CCAAT/Enhancer Binding Protein Alpha

We performed a decision analysis comparing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) versus chemotherapy in first complete remission for patients with cytogenetically intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia, depending on the presence or absence of FLT3-internal tandem duplication (ITD), nucleophosmin (NPM1), and CCAAT/enhancer binding protein alpha (CEBPA) mutations. Adjusted means of the patient-reported EQ-5D index were used as quality-of-life (QOL) estimates. In 332 patients for which FLT3-ITD status was available, FLT3-ITD was present in 60. In 272 patients without FLT3-ITD, NPM1 mutations were present in 83. CEBPA biallelic mutations were detected in 53 patients. For patients harboring FLT3-ITD, allo-HCT improved life expectancy (LE) (52 versus 32 months during 10-year observation) and QOL-adjusted life expectancy (QALE, 36 versus 21). Monte-Carlo simulation identified allo-HCT as the favored strategy in 100% of simulations. In patients without FLT3-ITD, allo-HCT improved LE/QALE with or without NPM1 mutations. However, sensitivity analyses showed that the results were not robust enough. For patients harboring CEBPA biallelic mutations, chemotherapy was favored (LE, 53 versus 84; QALE, 37 versus 59), whereas, for patients with monoallelic mutations or wild-type CEBPA, allo-HCT was favored (LE, 68 versus 54; QALE, 48 versus 37). Sensitivity analyses did not change the results in either group. In conclusion, based on a Markov decision analysis, allo-HCT was a favored postremission strategy in patients with FLT3-ITD, and chemotherapy was favored in patients with biallelic CEBPA mutations. A prospective study is warranted to determine the value of allo-HCT, especially in FLT3-ITD-negative patients.