Development and validation of a nomogram predicting postoperative pneumonia after major abdominal surgery

Keishi Kawasaki, Mariko Yamamoto, Yusuke Suka, Yohei Kawasaki, Kyoji Ito, Daisuke Koike, Takatoshi Furuya, Motoki Nagai, Yukihiro Nomura, Nobutaka Tanaka, Yoshikuni Kawaguchi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Purpose: Postoperative pneumonia (POP) is a common complication that can adversely affect the outcomes after surgery. This study aimed to devise and validate a model for stratifying the probability of POP in patients undergoing abdominal surgery. Methods: We included 1050 patients who underwent major abdominal surgery between 2012 and 2013. A nomogram was devised by evaluating the predictive factors for POP. Results: Of the 1050 patients, 56 (5.3%) developed POP. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that the independent predictive factors for POP were age, male sex, history of cerebrovascular disease, Brinkman Index (BI) ≥ 900, and upper midline incision. A nomogram was devised by employing these five significant predictive factors. The prediction model showed a relatively good discrimination performance, with a concordance index of 0.77. Conclusions: A nomogram based on age, male sex, history of cerebrovascular disease, BI ≥ 900, and upper midline incision may be useful for identifying patients with a high probability of developing POP after major abdominal surgery.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)769-777
Number of pages9
JournalSurgery Today
Volume49
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 10-09-2019
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Surgery

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