Development of a risk equation for the incidence of coronary artery disease and ischemic stroke for middle-aged Japanese – Japan public health center-based prospective study

Hiroshi Yatsuya, Hiroyasu Iso, Enei Ri, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Isao Saito, Norie Sawada, Manami Inoue, Shoichiro Tsugane

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Background:Global risk assessment for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases helps guide the intensity of behavioral and pharmacological interventions.Methods and Results:The Japan Public Health Center-based prospective (JPHC) Study Cohort II (age range: 40–69 years at baseline in 1993–1994, n=15,672) was used to derive the risk equations for coronary artery disease (CAD) and ischemic stroke incidence via hazard regression. The model discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC), and model goodness-of-fit by the Grønnesby-Borgan chi-squared statistic. During a mean of 16.4 years of follow up, 192 incident CAD cases and 552 ischemic stroke cases occurred. Variables selected for the CAD equation were age, sex, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and non-HDLC. The same variables, except non-HDLC, were selected for the ischemic stroke equation. The equations discriminated incidence reasonably well (AUC: 0.81 for CAD, 0.78 for ischemic stroke). The AUC of the equation applied externally to Cohort I (n=11,598) was also good: 0.77 and 0.76 for CAD and ischemic stroke, respectively. Risk calculator application and color charts to visualize estimated risk according to the combinations of risk factors were prepared.Conclusions:Risk equations were developed to estimate the 10-year probability of CAD and ischemic stroke in Japanese people, using variables that are routinely obtained.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1386-1395
Number of pages10
JournalCirculation Journal
Volume80
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01-01-2016

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Coronary Artery Disease
Japan
Public Health
Stroke
Prospective Studies
Incidence
Area Under Curve
Blood Pressure
HDL Cholesterol
Antihypertensive Agents
Cardiovascular Diseases
Color
Smoking
Pharmacology
lipoprotein cholesterol

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Cite this

Yatsuya, Hiroshi ; Iso, Hiroyasu ; Ri, Enei ; Yamagishi, Kazumasa ; Kokubo, Yoshihiro ; Saito, Isao ; Sawada, Norie ; Inoue, Manami ; Tsugane, Shoichiro. / Development of a risk equation for the incidence of coronary artery disease and ischemic stroke for middle-aged Japanese – Japan public health center-based prospective study. In: Circulation Journal. 2016 ; Vol. 80, No. 6. pp. 1386-1395.
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abstract = "Background:Global risk assessment for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases helps guide the intensity of behavioral and pharmacological interventions.Methods and Results:The Japan Public Health Center-based prospective (JPHC) Study Cohort II (age range: 40–69 years at baseline in 1993–1994, n=15,672) was used to derive the risk equations for coronary artery disease (CAD) and ischemic stroke incidence via hazard regression. The model discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC), and model goodness-of-fit by the Gr{\o}nnesby-Borgan chi-squared statistic. During a mean of 16.4 years of follow up, 192 incident CAD cases and 552 ischemic stroke cases occurred. Variables selected for the CAD equation were age, sex, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and non-HDLC. The same variables, except non-HDLC, were selected for the ischemic stroke equation. The equations discriminated incidence reasonably well (AUC: 0.81 for CAD, 0.78 for ischemic stroke). The AUC of the equation applied externally to Cohort I (n=11,598) was also good: 0.77 and 0.76 for CAD and ischemic stroke, respectively. Risk calculator application and color charts to visualize estimated risk according to the combinations of risk factors were prepared.Conclusions:Risk equations were developed to estimate the 10-year probability of CAD and ischemic stroke in Japanese people, using variables that are routinely obtained.",
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Development of a risk equation for the incidence of coronary artery disease and ischemic stroke for middle-aged Japanese – Japan public health center-based prospective study. / Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Iso, Hiroyasu; Ri, Enei; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Saito, Isao; Sawada, Norie; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro.

In: Circulation Journal, Vol. 80, No. 6, 01.01.2016, p. 1386-1395.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Development of a risk equation for the incidence of coronary artery disease and ischemic stroke for middle-aged Japanese – Japan public health center-based prospective study

AU - Yatsuya, Hiroshi

AU - Iso, Hiroyasu

AU - Ri, Enei

AU - Yamagishi, Kazumasa

AU - Kokubo, Yoshihiro

AU - Saito, Isao

AU - Sawada, Norie

AU - Inoue, Manami

AU - Tsugane, Shoichiro

PY - 2016/1/1

Y1 - 2016/1/1

N2 - Background:Global risk assessment for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases helps guide the intensity of behavioral and pharmacological interventions.Methods and Results:The Japan Public Health Center-based prospective (JPHC) Study Cohort II (age range: 40–69 years at baseline in 1993–1994, n=15,672) was used to derive the risk equations for coronary artery disease (CAD) and ischemic stroke incidence via hazard regression. The model discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC), and model goodness-of-fit by the Grønnesby-Borgan chi-squared statistic. During a mean of 16.4 years of follow up, 192 incident CAD cases and 552 ischemic stroke cases occurred. Variables selected for the CAD equation were age, sex, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and non-HDLC. The same variables, except non-HDLC, were selected for the ischemic stroke equation. The equations discriminated incidence reasonably well (AUC: 0.81 for CAD, 0.78 for ischemic stroke). The AUC of the equation applied externally to Cohort I (n=11,598) was also good: 0.77 and 0.76 for CAD and ischemic stroke, respectively. Risk calculator application and color charts to visualize estimated risk according to the combinations of risk factors were prepared.Conclusions:Risk equations were developed to estimate the 10-year probability of CAD and ischemic stroke in Japanese people, using variables that are routinely obtained.

AB - Background:Global risk assessment for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases helps guide the intensity of behavioral and pharmacological interventions.Methods and Results:The Japan Public Health Center-based prospective (JPHC) Study Cohort II (age range: 40–69 years at baseline in 1993–1994, n=15,672) was used to derive the risk equations for coronary artery disease (CAD) and ischemic stroke incidence via hazard regression. The model discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC), and model goodness-of-fit by the Grønnesby-Borgan chi-squared statistic. During a mean of 16.4 years of follow up, 192 incident CAD cases and 552 ischemic stroke cases occurred. Variables selected for the CAD equation were age, sex, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and non-HDLC. The same variables, except non-HDLC, were selected for the ischemic stroke equation. The equations discriminated incidence reasonably well (AUC: 0.81 for CAD, 0.78 for ischemic stroke). The AUC of the equation applied externally to Cohort I (n=11,598) was also good: 0.77 and 0.76 for CAD and ischemic stroke, respectively. Risk calculator application and color charts to visualize estimated risk according to the combinations of risk factors were prepared.Conclusions:Risk equations were developed to estimate the 10-year probability of CAD and ischemic stroke in Japanese people, using variables that are routinely obtained.

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