Evaluation of a method for issuing warnings pre-epidemics and epidemics in Japan by infectious diseases surveillance

Yoshitaka Murakami, Shuji Hashimoto, Kiyosu Taniguchi, Ken Osaka, Hiroshi Fuchigami, Masaki Nagai

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Simple methods have been developed to warn of pre-epidemics and epidemics in small areas using data of infectious diseases surveillance. Epidemic warnings are made if the index of cases per week per sentinel medical institution is greater than a defined value. A pre-epidemic warning means that an epidemic warning will be given in the following four weeks. While the methods are used routinely for surveillance in Japan, they remain to be validated. Methods: Infectious diseases surveillance data of influenza-like illness and 12 pediatric diseases in the fiscal year between 1999 and 2001 were used in the analysis. We examined the frequency of warnings, temporal changes in the index before and after the onset of a warning, and the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of pre-epidemic warnings. Results: For the majority of the diseases investigated, the proportion of weeks in which a warning was issued ranged between 0% and 10%. In several diseases including influenza-like illness, we observed a rapid increase and gradual decrease in the index before and after a warning. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of a pre-epidemic warning were 90.4%, 93.7% and 23.9% for influenza-like illness, and ranged between 25.1-54.2%, 86.1-99.2%, and 2.5-20,8% for the pediatric diseases (chickenpox, rubella, measles, and mumps), respectively. Conclusions: The study showed that the methods used for determining whether or not to issue an epidemic warning were satisfactory in some diseases, including influenza-like illness, and may need to be improved in several other diseases.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)33-40
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Epidemiology
Volume14
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01-12-2004

Fingerprint

Communicable Diseases
Japan
Human Influenza
Pediatrics
Sensitivity and Specificity
Mumps
Chickenpox
Rubella
Measles

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Epidemiology

Cite this

Murakami, Yoshitaka ; Hashimoto, Shuji ; Taniguchi, Kiyosu ; Osaka, Ken ; Fuchigami, Hiroshi ; Nagai, Masaki. / Evaluation of a method for issuing warnings pre-epidemics and epidemics in Japan by infectious diseases surveillance. In: Journal of Epidemiology. 2004 ; Vol. 14, No. 2. pp. 33-40.
@article{0da27d0d18a0423abdde74052acc7805,
title = "Evaluation of a method for issuing warnings pre-epidemics and epidemics in Japan by infectious diseases surveillance",
abstract = "Background: Simple methods have been developed to warn of pre-epidemics and epidemics in small areas using data of infectious diseases surveillance. Epidemic warnings are made if the index of cases per week per sentinel medical institution is greater than a defined value. A pre-epidemic warning means that an epidemic warning will be given in the following four weeks. While the methods are used routinely for surveillance in Japan, they remain to be validated. Methods: Infectious diseases surveillance data of influenza-like illness and 12 pediatric diseases in the fiscal year between 1999 and 2001 were used in the analysis. We examined the frequency of warnings, temporal changes in the index before and after the onset of a warning, and the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of pre-epidemic warnings. Results: For the majority of the diseases investigated, the proportion of weeks in which a warning was issued ranged between 0{\%} and 10{\%}. In several diseases including influenza-like illness, we observed a rapid increase and gradual decrease in the index before and after a warning. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of a pre-epidemic warning were 90.4{\%}, 93.7{\%} and 23.9{\%} for influenza-like illness, and ranged between 25.1-54.2{\%}, 86.1-99.2{\%}, and 2.5-20,8{\%} for the pediatric diseases (chickenpox, rubella, measles, and mumps), respectively. Conclusions: The study showed that the methods used for determining whether or not to issue an epidemic warning were satisfactory in some diseases, including influenza-like illness, and may need to be improved in several other diseases.",
author = "Yoshitaka Murakami and Shuji Hashimoto and Kiyosu Taniguchi and Ken Osaka and Hiroshi Fuchigami and Masaki Nagai",
year = "2004",
month = "12",
day = "1",
doi = "10.2188/jea.14.33",
language = "English",
volume = "14",
pages = "33--40",
journal = "Journal of Epidemiology",
issn = "0917-5040",
publisher = "Japan Epidemiology Association",
number = "2",

}

Evaluation of a method for issuing warnings pre-epidemics and epidemics in Japan by infectious diseases surveillance. / Murakami, Yoshitaka; Hashimoto, Shuji; Taniguchi, Kiyosu; Osaka, Ken; Fuchigami, Hiroshi; Nagai, Masaki.

In: Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 14, No. 2, 01.12.2004, p. 33-40.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Evaluation of a method for issuing warnings pre-epidemics and epidemics in Japan by infectious diseases surveillance

AU - Murakami, Yoshitaka

AU - Hashimoto, Shuji

AU - Taniguchi, Kiyosu

AU - Osaka, Ken

AU - Fuchigami, Hiroshi

AU - Nagai, Masaki

PY - 2004/12/1

Y1 - 2004/12/1

N2 - Background: Simple methods have been developed to warn of pre-epidemics and epidemics in small areas using data of infectious diseases surveillance. Epidemic warnings are made if the index of cases per week per sentinel medical institution is greater than a defined value. A pre-epidemic warning means that an epidemic warning will be given in the following four weeks. While the methods are used routinely for surveillance in Japan, they remain to be validated. Methods: Infectious diseases surveillance data of influenza-like illness and 12 pediatric diseases in the fiscal year between 1999 and 2001 were used in the analysis. We examined the frequency of warnings, temporal changes in the index before and after the onset of a warning, and the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of pre-epidemic warnings. Results: For the majority of the diseases investigated, the proportion of weeks in which a warning was issued ranged between 0% and 10%. In several diseases including influenza-like illness, we observed a rapid increase and gradual decrease in the index before and after a warning. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of a pre-epidemic warning were 90.4%, 93.7% and 23.9% for influenza-like illness, and ranged between 25.1-54.2%, 86.1-99.2%, and 2.5-20,8% for the pediatric diseases (chickenpox, rubella, measles, and mumps), respectively. Conclusions: The study showed that the methods used for determining whether or not to issue an epidemic warning were satisfactory in some diseases, including influenza-like illness, and may need to be improved in several other diseases.

AB - Background: Simple methods have been developed to warn of pre-epidemics and epidemics in small areas using data of infectious diseases surveillance. Epidemic warnings are made if the index of cases per week per sentinel medical institution is greater than a defined value. A pre-epidemic warning means that an epidemic warning will be given in the following four weeks. While the methods are used routinely for surveillance in Japan, they remain to be validated. Methods: Infectious diseases surveillance data of influenza-like illness and 12 pediatric diseases in the fiscal year between 1999 and 2001 were used in the analysis. We examined the frequency of warnings, temporal changes in the index before and after the onset of a warning, and the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of pre-epidemic warnings. Results: For the majority of the diseases investigated, the proportion of weeks in which a warning was issued ranged between 0% and 10%. In several diseases including influenza-like illness, we observed a rapid increase and gradual decrease in the index before and after a warning. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of a pre-epidemic warning were 90.4%, 93.7% and 23.9% for influenza-like illness, and ranged between 25.1-54.2%, 86.1-99.2%, and 2.5-20,8% for the pediatric diseases (chickenpox, rubella, measles, and mumps), respectively. Conclusions: The study showed that the methods used for determining whether or not to issue an epidemic warning were satisfactory in some diseases, including influenza-like illness, and may need to be improved in several other diseases.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=2542520747&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=2542520747&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.2188/jea.14.33

DO - 10.2188/jea.14.33

M3 - Article

C2 - 15162976

AN - SCOPUS:2542520747

VL - 14

SP - 33

EP - 40

JO - Journal of Epidemiology

JF - Journal of Epidemiology

SN - 0917-5040

IS - 2

ER -