[Future prediction of health expectancy considering the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term)].

Shuji Hashimoto, Miyuki Kawado, Hiroya Yamada, Rumi Seko, Yoshitaka Murakami, Takehito Hayakawa, Masayuki Hayashi, Masahiro Kato, Tatsuya Noda, Toshiyuki Ojima, Yasutake Tomata, Ichiro Tsuji

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We attempted to predict health expectancy in Japan for the period between 2011 and 2020, considering the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term) that future gains in health expectancy be larger than in life expectancy. We used data from Japanese national statistics. Health expectancy between 2011 and 2020 was predicted using the Sullivan method under the assumption that future mortality was equal to the estimate in Population Projections for Japan (January 2012), and under three scenarios of future prevalence of bad health status. The numbers of expected years without activity limitation at birth for males and females in 2020 were predicted as 71.2 and 74.3, respectively, under the scenario that prevalence of activity limitation was constant since 2010; 71.4 and 74.5 under the scenario that the prevalence followed the recent trend; and 71.7 and 74.9 under the scenario that the prevalence decreased with such a rate that future gains in health expectancy were equal to in life expectancy. The rate of decrease in the prevalence in 2010-2020 in the last scenario was estimated to be 0.95 in males and 0.96 in females. The numbers of expected years with subjective well-being at birth in 2020 predicted under above three scenarios were between 69.5 and 71.2 in males and between 72.9 and 74.6 in females. The rate of decrease in the last scenario was estimated to be 0.96 in males and 0.97 in females. The numbers of expected years without care needs at age 65 in 2020 predicted under above three scenarios were between 18.0-18.2 in males and between 21.2-21.5 in females. The rate of decrease in the last scenario was estimated to be 0.90 in males and 0.91 in females. The health expectancy in 2011-2020 was predicted under some scenarios of future prevalence of bad health status. The rate of decrease in the future prevalence of bad health status was estimated with a view to the accomplishment of the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)738-744
Number of pages7
Journal[Nihon kōshū eisei zasshi] Japanese journal of public health
Volume60
Issue number12
Publication statusPublished - 2013

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Japan
Health
Health Status
Life Expectancy
Parturition
Mortality

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Medicine(all)

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Hashimoto, Shuji ; Kawado, Miyuki ; Yamada, Hiroya ; Seko, Rumi ; Murakami, Yoshitaka ; Hayakawa, Takehito ; Hayashi, Masayuki ; Kato, Masahiro ; Noda, Tatsuya ; Ojima, Toshiyuki ; Tomata, Yasutake ; Tsuji, Ichiro. / [Future prediction of health expectancy considering the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term)]. In: [Nihon kōshū eisei zasshi] Japanese journal of public health. 2013 ; Vol. 60, No. 12. pp. 738-744.
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abstract = "We attempted to predict health expectancy in Japan for the period between 2011 and 2020, considering the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term) that future gains in health expectancy be larger than in life expectancy. We used data from Japanese national statistics. Health expectancy between 2011 and 2020 was predicted using the Sullivan method under the assumption that future mortality was equal to the estimate in Population Projections for Japan (January 2012), and under three scenarios of future prevalence of bad health status. The numbers of expected years without activity limitation at birth for males and females in 2020 were predicted as 71.2 and 74.3, respectively, under the scenario that prevalence of activity limitation was constant since 2010; 71.4 and 74.5 under the scenario that the prevalence followed the recent trend; and 71.7 and 74.9 under the scenario that the prevalence decreased with such a rate that future gains in health expectancy were equal to in life expectancy. The rate of decrease in the prevalence in 2010-2020 in the last scenario was estimated to be 0.95 in males and 0.96 in females. The numbers of expected years with subjective well-being at birth in 2020 predicted under above three scenarios were between 69.5 and 71.2 in males and between 72.9 and 74.6 in females. The rate of decrease in the last scenario was estimated to be 0.96 in males and 0.97 in females. The numbers of expected years without care needs at age 65 in 2020 predicted under above three scenarios were between 18.0-18.2 in males and between 21.2-21.5 in females. The rate of decrease in the last scenario was estimated to be 0.90 in males and 0.91 in females. The health expectancy in 2011-2020 was predicted under some scenarios of future prevalence of bad health status. The rate of decrease in the future prevalence of bad health status was estimated with a view to the accomplishment of the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term).",
author = "Shuji Hashimoto and Miyuki Kawado and Hiroya Yamada and Rumi Seko and Yoshitaka Murakami and Takehito Hayakawa and Masayuki Hayashi and Masahiro Kato and Tatsuya Noda and Toshiyuki Ojima and Yasutake Tomata and Ichiro Tsuji",
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Hashimoto, S, Kawado, M, Yamada, H, Seko, R, Murakami, Y, Hayakawa, T, Hayashi, M, Kato, M, Noda, T, Ojima, T, Tomata, Y & Tsuji, I 2013, '[Future prediction of health expectancy considering the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term)].', [Nihon kōshū eisei zasshi] Japanese journal of public health, vol. 60, no. 12, pp. 738-744.

[Future prediction of health expectancy considering the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term)]. / Hashimoto, Shuji; Kawado, Miyuki; Yamada, Hiroya; Seko, Rumi; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Hayakawa, Takehito; Hayashi, Masayuki; Kato, Masahiro; Noda, Tatsuya; Ojima, Toshiyuki; Tomata, Yasutake; Tsuji, Ichiro.

In: [Nihon kōshū eisei zasshi] Japanese journal of public health, Vol. 60, No. 12, 2013, p. 738-744.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T1 - [Future prediction of health expectancy considering the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term)].

AU - Hashimoto, Shuji

AU - Kawado, Miyuki

AU - Yamada, Hiroya

AU - Seko, Rumi

AU - Murakami, Yoshitaka

AU - Hayakawa, Takehito

AU - Hayashi, Masayuki

AU - Kato, Masahiro

AU - Noda, Tatsuya

AU - Ojima, Toshiyuki

AU - Tomata, Yasutake

AU - Tsuji, Ichiro

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - We attempted to predict health expectancy in Japan for the period between 2011 and 2020, considering the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term) that future gains in health expectancy be larger than in life expectancy. We used data from Japanese national statistics. Health expectancy between 2011 and 2020 was predicted using the Sullivan method under the assumption that future mortality was equal to the estimate in Population Projections for Japan (January 2012), and under three scenarios of future prevalence of bad health status. The numbers of expected years without activity limitation at birth for males and females in 2020 were predicted as 71.2 and 74.3, respectively, under the scenario that prevalence of activity limitation was constant since 2010; 71.4 and 74.5 under the scenario that the prevalence followed the recent trend; and 71.7 and 74.9 under the scenario that the prevalence decreased with such a rate that future gains in health expectancy were equal to in life expectancy. The rate of decrease in the prevalence in 2010-2020 in the last scenario was estimated to be 0.95 in males and 0.96 in females. The numbers of expected years with subjective well-being at birth in 2020 predicted under above three scenarios were between 69.5 and 71.2 in males and between 72.9 and 74.6 in females. The rate of decrease in the last scenario was estimated to be 0.96 in males and 0.97 in females. The numbers of expected years without care needs at age 65 in 2020 predicted under above three scenarios were between 18.0-18.2 in males and between 21.2-21.5 in females. The rate of decrease in the last scenario was estimated to be 0.90 in males and 0.91 in females. The health expectancy in 2011-2020 was predicted under some scenarios of future prevalence of bad health status. The rate of decrease in the future prevalence of bad health status was estimated with a view to the accomplishment of the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term).

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