Long-term variability and change trend of systolic blood pressure and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in middle-aged Japanese individuals: findings of the Aichi Workers’ Cohort Study

Studies have reported that short-term blood pressure (BP) variability (BPV) is associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence, but the association with long-term BPV remains unclear. The present study investigated the associations of long-term BPV as well as the time trend of BP changes over time with the incidence of T2DM. This study followed a cohort of 3017 Japanese individuals (2446 male, 571 female) aged 36–65 years from 2007 through March 31, 2019. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the slope of systolic BP (SBP) change regressed on year were calculated individually using SBP values obtained from 2003 to baseline (2007). A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model was applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for tertiles of SBP RMSE and continuous SBP slopes adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, regular exercise, sodium intake, family history of diabetes, sleep disorder, body mass index (BMI), SBP, and fasting blood glucose (FBG) at baseline, and BMI slope from 2003 to 2007. The highest RMSE tertile compared to the lowest was associated with a significantly higher incidence of T2DM after adjusting for covariates (HR: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.15, 2.78). The slope was also significantly associated with T2DM incidence until baseline SBP and FBG were adjusted (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.07). In conclusion, long-term SBP variability was significantly associated with an increased incidence of T2DM independent of baseline age, sex, BMI, SBP, FBG, lifestyle factors and BMI slope from 2003 until baseline.