TY - JOUR
T1 - Non-Gaussian heart rate as an independent predictor of mortality in patients with chronic heart failure
AU - Kiyono, Ken
AU - Hayano, Junichiro
AU - Watanabe, Eiichi
AU - Struzik, Zbigniew R.
AU - Yamamoto, Yoshiharu
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was supported in part by grants from the Medical and Welfare Equipment Laboratory to Dr. Yamamoto.
Copyright:
Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2008/2
Y1 - 2008/2
N2 - Background: Morbidity and mortality due to chronic heart failure remain unacceptably high despite effective drug therapies, and the search for a better risk predictor is ongoing. Statistics derived from beat-to-beat fluctuations in heart rate or heart rate variability (HRV) have been used for this purpose, but the current predictability level is low or moderate at best. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether a recently proposed non-Gaussian index of HRV is a significant and independent mortality predictor in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). Methods: Twenty-four-hour Holter ECGs from 108 CHF patients were evaluated. Thirty-nine (36.1%) of the patients died during the follow-up period of 33 ± 17 months. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to determine factors related to all-cause mortality. The factors evaluated derived from clinical information, including plasma brain natriuretic peptide, conventional time- and frequency-domain and fractal HRV measures, and a recently proposed non-Gaussian index λ of HRV. Results: The short-term (<40 beats) non-Gaussian index λ40 (hazard ratio per increment of unit standard deviation 1.64, 95% confidence interval [1.23, 2.18], P <.001) and the long-term (<1,000 beats) index λ1000 (hazard ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval [1.07, 2.18], P <.02), together with brain natriuretic peptide (hazard ratio 2.26, 95% confidence interval [1.45, 3.53], P <.001), are significant univariate risk predictors of mortality. In a multivariate model, λ40 (1.49, [1.13, 1.96], P <.005) and brain natriuretic peptide (2.39, [1.53, 3.75], P <.001) are independent predictors of the survival statistics of patients. None of the conventional HRV measures have predicted the mortality of patients in a significant and independent manner. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate the usefulness of the short-term non-Gaussian index of HRV for risk prediction in patients with CHF.
AB - Background: Morbidity and mortality due to chronic heart failure remain unacceptably high despite effective drug therapies, and the search for a better risk predictor is ongoing. Statistics derived from beat-to-beat fluctuations in heart rate or heart rate variability (HRV) have been used for this purpose, but the current predictability level is low or moderate at best. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether a recently proposed non-Gaussian index of HRV is a significant and independent mortality predictor in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). Methods: Twenty-four-hour Holter ECGs from 108 CHF patients were evaluated. Thirty-nine (36.1%) of the patients died during the follow-up period of 33 ± 17 months. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to determine factors related to all-cause mortality. The factors evaluated derived from clinical information, including plasma brain natriuretic peptide, conventional time- and frequency-domain and fractal HRV measures, and a recently proposed non-Gaussian index λ of HRV. Results: The short-term (<40 beats) non-Gaussian index λ40 (hazard ratio per increment of unit standard deviation 1.64, 95% confidence interval [1.23, 2.18], P <.001) and the long-term (<1,000 beats) index λ1000 (hazard ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval [1.07, 2.18], P <.02), together with brain natriuretic peptide (hazard ratio 2.26, 95% confidence interval [1.45, 3.53], P <.001), are significant univariate risk predictors of mortality. In a multivariate model, λ40 (1.49, [1.13, 1.96], P <.005) and brain natriuretic peptide (2.39, [1.53, 3.75], P <.001) are independent predictors of the survival statistics of patients. None of the conventional HRV measures have predicted the mortality of patients in a significant and independent manner. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate the usefulness of the short-term non-Gaussian index of HRV for risk prediction in patients with CHF.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=38649134175&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=38649134175&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.hrthm.2007.10.030
DO - 10.1016/j.hrthm.2007.10.030
M3 - Article
C2 - 18242551
AN - SCOPUS:38649134175
SN - 1547-5271
VL - 5
SP - 261
EP - 268
JO - Heart Rhythm
JF - Heart Rhythm
IS - 2
ER -