Prediction of future cost savings in long-term care and medical care if Japan achieves the health expectancy target of Health Japan 21 (second term)

Yasutake Tomata, Ichiro Tsuji, Kemmyo Sugiyama, Shuji Hashimoto, Miyuki Kawado, Hiroya Yamada, Rumi Seko, Yoshitaka Murakami, Takehito Hayakawa, Masayuki Hayashi, Masahiro Kato, Tatsuya Noda, Toshiyuki Ojima

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

OBJECTIVES: An earlier study using the data from the Japanese Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) system reported a scenario for achieving the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term): future gains in health expectancy from 2011 to 2020 must be larger than gains in expectancy. According to this scenario (the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario), the proportion of disability (cases≥Care Level 2 in LTCI disability certification) will gradually decrease by 1% per year from 2011. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost savings in long-term care and medical care if the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario is achieved.

METHODS: We used data from Japanese national statistics and a survey conducted in Osaki city, Miyagi. The natural course of disability cases (≥Care Level 2) was estimated under the assumption that the future population composition would be equal to the population projections for Japan and the future proportion of disabilities for each age grade would be equal to that of 2010. Then, the decrease in the number of disabilities based on the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario was calculated. Finally, the cost savings in long-term care and medical care associated with the assumed decrease in the number of disability cases was calculated.

RESULTS: When the disability cases (≥Care Level 2) were shifted to "no disability certification (not requiring care)," a total estimated cost reduction of 5,291 billion yen was achieved from 2011 to 2020. Furthermore, a total estimated reduction of 2,491 billion yen was achieved for the same period when all disability shifts to "Care Level 1" were accounted for.

CONCLUSION: As a rough calculation, if the Health Japan 21 (second term) target is achieved, approximately 2,500-5,300 billion yen will be saved in the cost of long-term care and medical care.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)679-685
Number of pages7
Journal[Nihon kōshū eisei zasshi] Japanese journal of public health
Volume61
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - 01-01-2014

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Cost Savings
Long-Term Care
Life Expectancy
Japan
Health
Long-Term Care Insurance
Certification
Costs and Cost Analysis
Population

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Tomata, Yasutake ; Tsuji, Ichiro ; Sugiyama, Kemmyo ; Hashimoto, Shuji ; Kawado, Miyuki ; Yamada, Hiroya ; Seko, Rumi ; Murakami, Yoshitaka ; Hayakawa, Takehito ; Hayashi, Masayuki ; Kato, Masahiro ; Noda, Tatsuya ; Ojima, Toshiyuki. / Prediction of future cost savings in long-term care and medical care if Japan achieves the health expectancy target of Health Japan 21 (second term). In: [Nihon kōshū eisei zasshi] Japanese journal of public health. 2014 ; Vol. 61, No. 11. pp. 679-685.
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abstract = "OBJECTIVES: An earlier study using the data from the Japanese Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) system reported a scenario for achieving the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term): future gains in health expectancy from 2011 to 2020 must be larger than gains in expectancy. According to this scenario (the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario), the proportion of disability (cases≥Care Level 2 in LTCI disability certification) will gradually decrease by 1{\%} per year from 2011. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost savings in long-term care and medical care if the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario is achieved.METHODS: We used data from Japanese national statistics and a survey conducted in Osaki city, Miyagi. The natural course of disability cases (≥Care Level 2) was estimated under the assumption that the future population composition would be equal to the population projections for Japan and the future proportion of disabilities for each age grade would be equal to that of 2010. Then, the decrease in the number of disabilities based on the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario was calculated. Finally, the cost savings in long-term care and medical care associated with the assumed decrease in the number of disability cases was calculated.RESULTS: When the disability cases (≥Care Level 2) were shifted to {"}no disability certification (not requiring care),{"} a total estimated cost reduction of 5,291 billion yen was achieved from 2011 to 2020. Furthermore, a total estimated reduction of 2,491 billion yen was achieved for the same period when all disability shifts to {"}Care Level 1{"} were accounted for.CONCLUSION: As a rough calculation, if the Health Japan 21 (second term) target is achieved, approximately 2,500-5,300 billion yen will be saved in the cost of long-term care and medical care.",
author = "Yasutake Tomata and Ichiro Tsuji and Kemmyo Sugiyama and Shuji Hashimoto and Miyuki Kawado and Hiroya Yamada and Rumi Seko and Yoshitaka Murakami and Takehito Hayakawa and Masayuki Hayashi and Masahiro Kato and Tatsuya Noda and Toshiyuki Ojima",
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Tomata, Y, Tsuji, I, Sugiyama, K, Hashimoto, S, Kawado, M, Yamada, H, Seko, R, Murakami, Y, Hayakawa, T, Hayashi, M, Kato, M, Noda, T & Ojima, T 2014, 'Prediction of future cost savings in long-term care and medical care if Japan achieves the health expectancy target of Health Japan 21 (second term)', [Nihon kōshū eisei zasshi] Japanese journal of public health, vol. 61, no. 11, pp. 679-685.

Prediction of future cost savings in long-term care and medical care if Japan achieves the health expectancy target of Health Japan 21 (second term). / Tomata, Yasutake; Tsuji, Ichiro; Sugiyama, Kemmyo; Hashimoto, Shuji; Kawado, Miyuki; Yamada, Hiroya; Seko, Rumi; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Hayakawa, Takehito; Hayashi, Masayuki; Kato, Masahiro; Noda, Tatsuya; Ojima, Toshiyuki.

In: [Nihon kōshū eisei zasshi] Japanese journal of public health, Vol. 61, No. 11, 01.01.2014, p. 679-685.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prediction of future cost savings in long-term care and medical care if Japan achieves the health expectancy target of Health Japan 21 (second term)

AU - Tomata, Yasutake

AU - Tsuji, Ichiro

AU - Sugiyama, Kemmyo

AU - Hashimoto, Shuji

AU - Kawado, Miyuki

AU - Yamada, Hiroya

AU - Seko, Rumi

AU - Murakami, Yoshitaka

AU - Hayakawa, Takehito

AU - Hayashi, Masayuki

AU - Kato, Masahiro

AU - Noda, Tatsuya

AU - Ojima, Toshiyuki

PY - 2014/1/1

Y1 - 2014/1/1

N2 - OBJECTIVES: An earlier study using the data from the Japanese Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) system reported a scenario for achieving the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term): future gains in health expectancy from 2011 to 2020 must be larger than gains in expectancy. According to this scenario (the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario), the proportion of disability (cases≥Care Level 2 in LTCI disability certification) will gradually decrease by 1% per year from 2011. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost savings in long-term care and medical care if the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario is achieved.METHODS: We used data from Japanese national statistics and a survey conducted in Osaki city, Miyagi. The natural course of disability cases (≥Care Level 2) was estimated under the assumption that the future population composition would be equal to the population projections for Japan and the future proportion of disabilities for each age grade would be equal to that of 2010. Then, the decrease in the number of disabilities based on the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario was calculated. Finally, the cost savings in long-term care and medical care associated with the assumed decrease in the number of disability cases was calculated.RESULTS: When the disability cases (≥Care Level 2) were shifted to "no disability certification (not requiring care)," a total estimated cost reduction of 5,291 billion yen was achieved from 2011 to 2020. Furthermore, a total estimated reduction of 2,491 billion yen was achieved for the same period when all disability shifts to "Care Level 1" were accounted for.CONCLUSION: As a rough calculation, if the Health Japan 21 (second term) target is achieved, approximately 2,500-5,300 billion yen will be saved in the cost of long-term care and medical care.

AB - OBJECTIVES: An earlier study using the data from the Japanese Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) system reported a scenario for achieving the target of Health Japan 21 (the second term): future gains in health expectancy from 2011 to 2020 must be larger than gains in expectancy. According to this scenario (the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario), the proportion of disability (cases≥Care Level 2 in LTCI disability certification) will gradually decrease by 1% per year from 2011. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost savings in long-term care and medical care if the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario is achieved.METHODS: We used data from Japanese national statistics and a survey conducted in Osaki city, Miyagi. The natural course of disability cases (≥Care Level 2) was estimated under the assumption that the future population composition would be equal to the population projections for Japan and the future proportion of disabilities for each age grade would be equal to that of 2010. Then, the decrease in the number of disabilities based on the Healthy Life Expectancy Extension Scenario was calculated. Finally, the cost savings in long-term care and medical care associated with the assumed decrease in the number of disability cases was calculated.RESULTS: When the disability cases (≥Care Level 2) were shifted to "no disability certification (not requiring care)," a total estimated cost reduction of 5,291 billion yen was achieved from 2011 to 2020. Furthermore, a total estimated reduction of 2,491 billion yen was achieved for the same period when all disability shifts to "Care Level 1" were accounted for.CONCLUSION: As a rough calculation, if the Health Japan 21 (second term) target is achieved, approximately 2,500-5,300 billion yen will be saved in the cost of long-term care and medical care.

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VL - 61

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EP - 685

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IS - 11

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