The electrophysiological index can effectively predict subsequent coronary artery aneurysm in children with Kawasaki disease

Objectives: The Gunma score is used to predict the severity of Kawasaki disease (KD), including coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) as a cardiac complication, in Japan. Additionally, the characteristic ratio of ventricular repolarization (T-peak to T-end interval to QT interval [Tp-e/QT]) on a surface electrocardiogram reflects myocardial inflammation. This study aimed to determine whether the Tp-e/QT can be used to predict CAA in children with KD. Methods: We analyzed chest surface electrocardiograms of 112 children with KD before receiving intravenous immunoglobulin therapy using available software (QTD; Fukuda Denshi, Tokyo, Japan). Results: The Tp-e/QT (lead V5) was positively correlated with the Gunma score (r=0.352, p<0.001). The Tp-e/QT was larger in patients with CAA (residual CAA at 1 month after onset) than in those without CAA (0.314±0.026 versus 0.253±0.044, p=0.003). A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to assess whether the Gunma score and Tp-e/QT could predict subsequent CAA. The area under the curve of the Gunma score was 0.719 with the cutoff set at 5 points. The area under the curve of the Tp-e/QT was 0.892 with a cutoff value of 0.299. The fit of the prediction models to the observed probability was tested by the Hosmer–Lemeshow test with calibration plots using Locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) fit. The Gunma score (p=0.95) and Tp-e/QT (p=0.95) showed a good fit. Conclusions: The Tp-e/QT is a useful biomarker in predicting coronary aneurysm complications in KD.