Updating the International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool for use in children

Although IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is a common cause of glomerulonephritis in children, the absence of a method to predict disease progression limits personalized risk-based treatment decisions. The adult International IgAN Prediction Tool comprises two validated Cox survival models that predict a 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end stage kidney disease (ESKD) using clinical risk factors and Oxford MEST histology scores. Here, we updated the Prediction Tool for use in children using a multiethnic international cohort of 1,060 children with IgAN followed into adulthood. The updated pediatric Prediction Tool had better model fit than the original adult tool with lower Akaike Information Criterion, higher R²_D and similar C-statistics. However, calibration showed very poor agreement between predicted and observed risks likely due to the observed disease trajectory in children. Therefore, the Tool was updated using a secondary outcome of a 30% reduction in eGFR or ESKD, resulting in better R²_D (30.3%/22.2%) and similar C-statistics (0.74/0.68) compared to the adult tool but with good calibration. The trajectory of eGFR over time in children differed from adults being highly non-linear with an increase until 18 years old followed by a linear decline similar to that of adults. A higher predicted risk was associated with a smaller increase in eGFR followed by a more rapid decline, suggesting that children at risk of a 30% decrease in eGFR will eventually experience a larger 50% decrease in eGFR when followed into adulthood. As such, these two outcomes are analogous between pediatric and adult Prediction Tools. Thus, our pediatric Prediction Tool can accurately predict the risk of a 30% decline in eGFR or ESKD in children with IgAN.