Anthropometric measurements as a predictor of mortality of community-dwelling Japanese elderly: The Nagoya Longitudinal Study of Frail Elderly (NLS-FE)

Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between anthropometric measurements and mortality among community-dwelling frail elderly. Methods: This study was a prospective cohort analysis of 520 community-dwelling elderly registered in the Nagoya Longitudinal Study for Frail Elderly (NLS-FE). Data included the participants' demographic characteristics, body mass index (BMI), mid-arm circumference (MAC), triceps skinfold (TSF), and arm muscle area (AMA), basic activities of daily living, comorbidity. BMI and TSF values were categorized into three groups, respectively, according to above the 75th percentile, the 25-75th percentile, and below the 25th percentile of Japanese Anthropometric Reference Data (JARD 2001). Survival analysis of 21-month mortality was conducted using Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Results: BMI and TSF were independent risk factors for 21-month mortality in the study participants. Significant higher risk of 21-month mortality was observed in participants below the 75th percentile of BMI or below the 25th percentile of TSF set in JARD 2001. A striking increase in the risk of 21-month mortality, adjusting for potential confounding factors, was observed in the below 75th percentile of the BMI group with a below 25th percentile TSF of JARD 2001, compared with the 75th or above percentile BMI group with the 25th or above percentile TSF. Conclusion: The combination of BMI and TSF is a predictor of 21-month mortality among older people with ADL dysfunction.