Calibration between the estimated probability of the risk assessment chart of Japan atherosclerosis society and actual mortality using external population: Evidence for cardiovascular prevention from observational cohorts in Japan (EPOCH-JAPAN)

Michikazu Nakai, Yoshihiro Miyamoto, Aya Higashiyama, Yoshitaka Murakami, Kunihiro Nishimura, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Shigeyuki Saitoh, Kiyomi Sakata, Hiroyasu Iso, Katsuyuki Miura, Hirotsugu Ueshima, Tomonori Okamura, EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group The EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group, Hirotsugu Ueshima, Tomonori Okamura, Hirotsugu Ueshima, Yutaka Imai, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Fujiko Irie, Hiroyasu IsoAkihiko Kitamura, Yutaka Kiyohara, Katsuyuki Miura, Yoshitaka Murakami, Hideaki Nakagawa, Takeo Nakayama, Akira Okayama, Toshimi Sairenchi, Shigeyuki Saitoh, Kiyomi Sakata, Akiko Tamakoshi, Ichiro Tsuji, Michiko Yamada, Masahiko Kiyama, Yoshihiro Miyamoto, Shizukiyo Ishikawa, Tomonori Okamura

研究成果: Article

5 引用 (Scopus)

抄録

Aim: In Japan Atherosclerosis Society guidelines for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2012 (JAS2012), NIPPON DATA80 risk assessment chart (ND80RAC) was adopted to estimate the 10-year probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality. However, there was no comparison between the estimated mortality calculated by ND80RAC and actual mortality in external populations. Accordingly, we used the large pooled database of cohorts in Japan, EPOCH-JAPAN, as an external population.Methods:The participants of EPOCH-JAPAN without a history of cardiovascular disease (15,091 men and 18,589 women aged 40–74 years) were analyzed based on sex. The probability of a 10-year risk of CAD/stroke mortality was estimated by ND80RAC. The participants were divided into both decile of their estimated mortality and three categories according to JAS2012. The calibration between the mean estimated mortality and the actual mortality was performed by the Hosmer and Lemeshow (H-L) test.Results: In both sexes, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality, particularly in higher deciles of estimated mortality, and the estimated stroke mortality was almost concordant with the actual mortality in low/moderate deciles of estimated mortality. As for the categories according to JAS2012, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality in both sexes; actual mortality in Category III was lower than that in Category II in women. However, it increased in the ascending order of category when we excluded the presence of diabetes from Category III.Conclusions: The estimated CAD mortality by ND80RAC tended to be higher than the actual mortality in the population in which the baseline survey was more recently performed.

元の言語English
ページ(範囲)176-195
ページ数20
ジャーナルJournal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis
23
発行部数2
DOI
出版物ステータスPublished - 01-02-2016

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Risk assessment
Calibration
Atherosclerosis
Japan
Mortality
Population
Coronary Artery Disease
Medical problems
Cardiovascular Diseases
Stroke

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Internal Medicine
  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
  • Biochemistry, medical

これを引用

Nakai, Michikazu ; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro ; Higashiyama, Aya ; Murakami, Yoshitaka ; Nishimura, Kunihiro ; Yatsuya, Hiroshi ; Saitoh, Shigeyuki ; Sakata, Kiyomi ; Iso, Hiroyasu ; Miura, Katsuyuki ; Ueshima, Hirotsugu ; Okamura, Tomonori ; The EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group, EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group ; Ueshima, Hirotsugu ; Okamura, Tomonori ; Ueshima, Hirotsugu ; Imai, Yutaka ; Ohkubo, Takayoshi ; Irie, Fujiko ; Iso, Hiroyasu ; Kitamura, Akihiko ; Kiyohara, Yutaka ; Miura, Katsuyuki ; Murakami, Yoshitaka ; Nakagawa, Hideaki ; Nakayama, Takeo ; Okayama, Akira ; Sairenchi, Toshimi ; Saitoh, Shigeyuki ; Sakata, Kiyomi ; Tamakoshi, Akiko ; Tsuji, Ichiro ; Yamada, Michiko ; Kiyama, Masahiko ; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro ; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo ; Okamura, Tomonori. / Calibration between the estimated probability of the risk assessment chart of Japan atherosclerosis society and actual mortality using external population : Evidence for cardiovascular prevention from observational cohorts in Japan (EPOCH-JAPAN). :: Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis. 2016 ; 巻 23, 番号 2. pp. 176-195.
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title = "Calibration between the estimated probability of the risk assessment chart of Japan atherosclerosis society and actual mortality using external population: Evidence for cardiovascular prevention from observational cohorts in Japan (EPOCH-JAPAN)",
abstract = "Aim: In Japan Atherosclerosis Society guidelines for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2012 (JAS2012), NIPPON DATA80 risk assessment chart (ND80RAC) was adopted to estimate the 10-year probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality. However, there was no comparison between the estimated mortality calculated by ND80RAC and actual mortality in external populations. Accordingly, we used the large pooled database of cohorts in Japan, EPOCH-JAPAN, as an external population.Methods:The participants of EPOCH-JAPAN without a history of cardiovascular disease (15,091 men and 18,589 women aged 40–74 years) were analyzed based on sex. The probability of a 10-year risk of CAD/stroke mortality was estimated by ND80RAC. The participants were divided into both decile of their estimated mortality and three categories according to JAS2012. The calibration between the mean estimated mortality and the actual mortality was performed by the Hosmer and Lemeshow (H-L) test.Results: In both sexes, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality, particularly in higher deciles of estimated mortality, and the estimated stroke mortality was almost concordant with the actual mortality in low/moderate deciles of estimated mortality. As for the categories according to JAS2012, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality in both sexes; actual mortality in Category III was lower than that in Category II in women. However, it increased in the ascending order of category when we excluded the presence of diabetes from Category III.Conclusions: The estimated CAD mortality by ND80RAC tended to be higher than the actual mortality in the population in which the baseline survey was more recently performed.",
author = "Michikazu Nakai and Yoshihiro Miyamoto and Aya Higashiyama and Yoshitaka Murakami and Kunihiro Nishimura and Hiroshi Yatsuya and Shigeyuki Saitoh and Kiyomi Sakata and Hiroyasu Iso and Katsuyuki Miura and Hirotsugu Ueshima and Tomonori Okamura and {The EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group}, {EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group} and Hirotsugu Ueshima and Tomonori Okamura and Hirotsugu Ueshima and Yutaka Imai and Takayoshi Ohkubo and Fujiko Irie and Hiroyasu Iso and Akihiko Kitamura and Yutaka Kiyohara and Katsuyuki Miura and Yoshitaka Murakami and Hideaki Nakagawa and Takeo Nakayama and Akira Okayama and Toshimi Sairenchi and Shigeyuki Saitoh and Kiyomi Sakata and Akiko Tamakoshi and Ichiro Tsuji and Michiko Yamada and Masahiko Kiyama and Yoshihiro Miyamoto and Shizukiyo Ishikawa and Tomonori Okamura",
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month = "2",
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doi = "10.5551/jat.31286",
language = "English",
volume = "23",
pages = "176--195",
journal = "Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis",
issn = "1340-3478",
publisher = "Japan Atherosclerosis Society",
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Nakai, M, Miyamoto, Y, Higashiyama, A, Murakami, Y, Nishimura, K, Yatsuya, H, Saitoh, S, Sakata, K, Iso, H, Miura, K, Ueshima, H, Okamura, T, The EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group, EPOCH-JAPANRG, Ueshima, H, Okamura, T, Ueshima, H, Imai, Y, Ohkubo, T, Irie, F, Iso, H, Kitamura, A, Kiyohara, Y, Miura, K, Murakami, Y, Nakagawa, H, Nakayama, T, Okayama, A, Sairenchi, T, Saitoh, S, Sakata, K, Tamakoshi, A, Tsuji, I, Yamada, M, Kiyama, M, Miyamoto, Y, Ishikawa, S & Okamura, T 2016, 'Calibration between the estimated probability of the risk assessment chart of Japan atherosclerosis society and actual mortality using external population: Evidence for cardiovascular prevention from observational cohorts in Japan (EPOCH-JAPAN)', Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis, 巻. 23, 番号 2, pp. 176-195. https://doi.org/10.5551/jat.31286

Calibration between the estimated probability of the risk assessment chart of Japan atherosclerosis society and actual mortality using external population : Evidence for cardiovascular prevention from observational cohorts in Japan (EPOCH-JAPAN). / Nakai, Michikazu; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro; Higashiyama, Aya; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Saitoh, Shigeyuki; Sakata, Kiyomi; Iso, Hiroyasu; Miura, Katsuyuki; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Okamura, Tomonori; The EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group, EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Okamura, Tomonori; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Imai, Yutaka; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Irie, Fujiko; Iso, Hiroyasu; Kitamura, Akihiko; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Miura, Katsuyuki; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Nakagawa, Hideaki; Nakayama, Takeo; Okayama, Akira; Sairenchi, Toshimi; Saitoh, Shigeyuki; Sakata, Kiyomi; Tamakoshi, Akiko; Tsuji, Ichiro; Yamada, Michiko; Kiyama, Masahiko; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Okamura, Tomonori.

:: Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis, 巻 23, 番号 2, 01.02.2016, p. 176-195.

研究成果: Article

TY - JOUR

T1 - Calibration between the estimated probability of the risk assessment chart of Japan atherosclerosis society and actual mortality using external population

T2 - Evidence for cardiovascular prevention from observational cohorts in Japan (EPOCH-JAPAN)

AU - Nakai, Michikazu

AU - Miyamoto, Yoshihiro

AU - Higashiyama, Aya

AU - Murakami, Yoshitaka

AU - Nishimura, Kunihiro

AU - Yatsuya, Hiroshi

AU - Saitoh, Shigeyuki

AU - Sakata, Kiyomi

AU - Iso, Hiroyasu

AU - Miura, Katsuyuki

AU - Ueshima, Hirotsugu

AU - Okamura, Tomonori

AU - The EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group, EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group

AU - Ueshima, Hirotsugu

AU - Okamura, Tomonori

AU - Ueshima, Hirotsugu

AU - Imai, Yutaka

AU - Ohkubo, Takayoshi

AU - Irie, Fujiko

AU - Iso, Hiroyasu

AU - Kitamura, Akihiko

AU - Kiyohara, Yutaka

AU - Miura, Katsuyuki

AU - Murakami, Yoshitaka

AU - Nakagawa, Hideaki

AU - Nakayama, Takeo

AU - Okayama, Akira

AU - Sairenchi, Toshimi

AU - Saitoh, Shigeyuki

AU - Sakata, Kiyomi

AU - Tamakoshi, Akiko

AU - Tsuji, Ichiro

AU - Yamada, Michiko

AU - Kiyama, Masahiko

AU - Miyamoto, Yoshihiro

AU - Ishikawa, Shizukiyo

AU - Okamura, Tomonori

PY - 2016/2/1

Y1 - 2016/2/1

N2 - Aim: In Japan Atherosclerosis Society guidelines for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2012 (JAS2012), NIPPON DATA80 risk assessment chart (ND80RAC) was adopted to estimate the 10-year probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality. However, there was no comparison between the estimated mortality calculated by ND80RAC and actual mortality in external populations. Accordingly, we used the large pooled database of cohorts in Japan, EPOCH-JAPAN, as an external population.Methods:The participants of EPOCH-JAPAN without a history of cardiovascular disease (15,091 men and 18,589 women aged 40–74 years) were analyzed based on sex. The probability of a 10-year risk of CAD/stroke mortality was estimated by ND80RAC. The participants were divided into both decile of their estimated mortality and three categories according to JAS2012. The calibration between the mean estimated mortality and the actual mortality was performed by the Hosmer and Lemeshow (H-L) test.Results: In both sexes, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality, particularly in higher deciles of estimated mortality, and the estimated stroke mortality was almost concordant with the actual mortality in low/moderate deciles of estimated mortality. As for the categories according to JAS2012, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality in both sexes; actual mortality in Category III was lower than that in Category II in women. However, it increased in the ascending order of category when we excluded the presence of diabetes from Category III.Conclusions: The estimated CAD mortality by ND80RAC tended to be higher than the actual mortality in the population in which the baseline survey was more recently performed.

AB - Aim: In Japan Atherosclerosis Society guidelines for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2012 (JAS2012), NIPPON DATA80 risk assessment chart (ND80RAC) was adopted to estimate the 10-year probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality. However, there was no comparison between the estimated mortality calculated by ND80RAC and actual mortality in external populations. Accordingly, we used the large pooled database of cohorts in Japan, EPOCH-JAPAN, as an external population.Methods:The participants of EPOCH-JAPAN without a history of cardiovascular disease (15,091 men and 18,589 women aged 40–74 years) were analyzed based on sex. The probability of a 10-year risk of CAD/stroke mortality was estimated by ND80RAC. The participants were divided into both decile of their estimated mortality and three categories according to JAS2012. The calibration between the mean estimated mortality and the actual mortality was performed by the Hosmer and Lemeshow (H-L) test.Results: In both sexes, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality, particularly in higher deciles of estimated mortality, and the estimated stroke mortality was almost concordant with the actual mortality in low/moderate deciles of estimated mortality. As for the categories according to JAS2012, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality in both sexes; actual mortality in Category III was lower than that in Category II in women. However, it increased in the ascending order of category when we excluded the presence of diabetes from Category III.Conclusions: The estimated CAD mortality by ND80RAC tended to be higher than the actual mortality in the population in which the baseline survey was more recently performed.

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U2 - 10.5551/jat.31286

DO - 10.5551/jat.31286

M3 - Article

C2 - 26347049

AN - SCOPUS:84957109173

VL - 23

SP - 176

EP - 195

JO - Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis

JF - Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis

SN - 1340-3478

IS - 2

ER -