Clinical value of the HATCH score for predicting adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure

The HATCH score is employed as a risk assessment tool for atrial fibrillation (AF) development. However, the impact of the HATCH score on the long-term adverse outcomes in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) remains unknown. We investigated the clinical value of the HATCH score in patients with AHF. From a multicenter AHF registry, we retrospectively evaluated 1543 consecutive patients who required hospitalization owing to AHF (median age, 78 [69–85] years; 42.3% women) from January 2012 to December 2019. These patients were divided into five risk groups based on their HATCH score at admission (scores 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4–7). The correlation between the HATCH score and the composite outcome, including all-cause mortality and re-hospitalization due to HF, was analyzed using Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional-hazard analyses. The median HATCH score was 2 [1–3], and the median age was 78 years (69–85 years). During the follow-up period (median, 16.8 months), the composite endpoint occurred in 691 patients (44.8%), including 416 (27%) patients who died (with 65 [4.2%] in-hospitalization deaths) and 455 (29.5%) patients requiring re-hospitalizations due to HF. The Kaplan–Meier analysis showed a significant increase in the composite endpoint with an increasing HATCH score (log-rank, p < 0.001). The multivariate Cox regression model revealed that the HATCH score was an independent predictor of the composite endpoint (hazard ratio [HR] 1.181; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.111–1.255; p < 0.001) with all-cause mortality (HR 1.153, 95% CI 1.065–1.249; p < 0.001) and re-hospitalizations due to HF (HR 1.21; 95% CI 1.124–1.303; p < 0.001) in patients with AHF, regardless of the presence or absence of AF, ejection fraction, and etiology. The HATCH score is an independent predictor of adverse outcomes in patients with AHF.