Day-to-day regularity and diurnal switching of physical activity reduce depression-related behaviors: a time-series analysis of wearable device data

Background: Wearable devices have been widely used in research to understand the relationship between habitual physical activity and mental health in the real world. However, little attention has been paid to the temporal variability in continuous physical activity patterns measured by these devices. Therefore, we analyzed time-series patterns of physical activity intensity measured by a wearable device and investigated the relationship between its model parameters and depression-related behaviors. Methods: Sixty-six individuals used the wearable device for one week and then answered a questionnaire on depression-related behaviors. A seasonal autoregressive integral moving average (SARIMA) model was fitted to the individual-level device data and the best individual model parameters were estimated via a grid search. Results: Out of 64 hyper-parameter combinations, 21 models were selected as optimal, and the models with a larger number of affiliations were found to have no seasonal autoregressive parameter. Conversely, about half of the optimal models indicated that physical activity on any given day fluctuated due to the previous day’s activity. In addition, both irregular rhythms in day-to-day activity and low-level of diurnal variability could lead to avoidant behavior patterns. Conclusion: Automatic and objective physical activity data from wearable devices showed that diurnal switching of physical activity, as well as day-to-day regularity rhythms, reduced depression-related behaviors. These time-series parameters may be useful for detecting behavioral issues that lie outside individuals’ subjective awareness.