抄録
Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
本文言語 | 英語 |
---|---|
ページ(範囲) | 117-171 |
ページ数 | 55 |
ジャーナル | The Lancet |
巻 | 385 |
号 | 9963 |
DOI | |
出版ステータス | 出版済み - 10-01-2015 |
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- 医学一般
UN SDG
この成果は、次の持続可能な開発目標に貢献しています
文献へのアクセス
他のファイルとリンク
フィンガープリント
「Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013」の研究トピックを掘り下げます。これらがまとまってユニークなフィンガープリントを構成します。引用スタイル
- APA
- Author
- BIBTEX
- Harvard
- Standard
- RIS
- Vancouver
}
In: The Lancet, Vol. 385, No. 9963, 10.01.2015, p. 117-171.
研究成果: ジャーナルへの寄稿 › 学術論文 › 査読
TY - JOUR
T1 - Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013
T2 - A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
AU - Naghavi, Mohsen
AU - Wang, Haidong
AU - Lozano, Rafael
AU - Davis, Adrian
AU - Liang, Xiaofeng
AU - Zhou, Maigeng
AU - Vollset, Stein Emil
AU - Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse
AU - Abdalla, Safa
AU - Abd-Allah, Foad
AU - Abdel Aziz, Muna I.
AU - Abera, Semaw Ferede
AU - Aboyans, Victor
AU - Abraham, Biju
AU - Abraham, Jerry P.
AU - Abuabara, Katrina E.
AU - Abubakar, Ibrahim
AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
AU - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E.
AU - Achoki, Tom
AU - Adelekan, Ademola
AU - Ademi, Zanfina
AU - Adofo, Koranteng
AU - Adou, Arséne Kouablan
AU - Adsuar, José C.
AU - Ärnlov, Johan
AU - Agardh, Emilie Elisabet
AU - Akena, Dickens
AU - Al Khabouri, Mazin J.
AU - Alasfoor, Deena
AU - Albittar, Mohammed
AU - Alegretti, Miguel Angel
AU - Aleman, Alicia V.
AU - Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw
AU - Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael
AU - Alhabib, Samia
AU - Ali, Mohammed K.
AU - Ali, Raghib
AU - Alla, Francois
AU - Al Lami, Faris
AU - Allebeck, Peter
AU - AlMazroa, Mohammad A.
AU - Al-Shahi Salman, Rustam
AU - Alsharif, Ubai
AU - Alvarez, Elena
AU - Alviz-Guzman, Nelson
AU - Amankwaa, Adansi A.
AU - Amare, Azmeraw T.
AU - Ameli, Omid
AU - Amini, Hassan
AU - Ammar, Walid
AU - Anderson, H. Ross
AU - Anderson, Benjamin O.
AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.
AU - Anwari, Palwasha
AU - Apfel, Henry
AU - Argeseanu Cunningham, Solveig
AU - Arsic Arsenijevic, Valentina S.
AU - Artaman, Al
AU - Asad, Majed Masoud
AU - Asghar, Rana J.
AU - Assadi, Reza
AU - Atkins, Lydia S.
AU - Atkinson, Charles
AU - Badawi, Alaa
AU - Bahit, Maria C.
AU - Bakfalouni, Talal
AU - Balakrishnan, Kalpana
AU - Balalla, Shivanthi
AU - Banerjee, Amitava
AU - Barber, Ryan M.
AU - Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.
AU - Barquera, Simon
AU - Barregard, Lars
AU - Barrero, Lope H.
AU - Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh
AU - Basu, Arindam
AU - Basu, Sanjay
AU - Basulaiman, Mohammed Omar
AU - Beardsley, Justin
AU - Bedi, Neeraj
AU - Beghi, Ettore
AU - Bekele, Tolesa
AU - Bell, Michelle L.
AU - Benjet, Corina
AU - Bennett, Derrick A.
AU - Bensenor, Isabela M.
AU - Benzian, Habib
AU - Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia
AU - Beyene, Tariku Jibat
AU - Bhala, Neeraj
AU - Bhalla, Ashish
AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.
AU - Bikbov, Boris
AU - Bin Abdulhak, Aref
AU - Biryukov, Stan
AU - Blore, Jed D.
AU - Blyth, Fiona M.
AU - Bohensky, Megan A.
AU - Borges, Guilherme
AU - Bose, Dipan
AU - Boufous, Soufiane
AU - Bourne, Rupert R.
AU - Boyers, Lindsay N.
AU - Brainin, Michael
AU - Brauer, Michael
AU - Brayne, Carol E.G.
AU - Brazinova, Alexandra
AU - Breitborde, Nicholas
AU - Brenner, Hermann
AU - Briggs, Adam D.M.
AU - Brown, Jonathan C.
AU - Brugha, Traolach S.
AU - Buckle, Geoffrey C.
AU - Bui, Linh Ngoc
AU - Bukhman, Gene
AU - Burch, Michael
AU - Campos Nonato, Ismael Ricardo
AU - Carabin, Hélène
AU - Cárdenas, Rosario
AU - Carapetis, Jonathan
AU - Carpenter, David O.
AU - Caso, Valeria
AU - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.
AU - Castro, Ruben Estanislao
AU - Catalá-López, Ferrán
AU - Cavalleri, Fiorella
AU - Chang, Jung Chen
AU - Charlson, Fiona C.
AU - Che, Xuan
AU - Chen, Honglei
AU - Chen, Yingyao
AU - Chen, Jian Sheng
AU - Chen, Zhengming
AU - Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia
AU - Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel
AU - Chowdhury, Rajiv
AU - Christensen, Hanne
AU - Christophi, Costas A.
AU - Chuang, Ting Wu
AU - Chugh, Sumeet S.
AU - Cirillo, Massimo
AU - Coates, Matthew M.
AU - Coffeng, Luc Edgar
AU - Coggeshall, Megan S.
AU - Cohen, Aaron
AU - Colistro, Valentina
AU - Colquhoun, Samantha M.
AU - Colomar, Mercedes
AU - Cooper, Leslie Trumbull
AU - Cooper, Cyrus
AU - Coppola, Luis M.
AU - Cortinovis, Monica
AU - Courville, Karen
AU - Cowie, Benjamin C.
AU - Criqui, Michael H.
AU - Crump, John A.
AU - Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia
AU - Da Costa Leite, Iuri
AU - Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C.
AU - Dandona, Lalit
AU - Dandona, Rakhi
AU - Dansereau, Emily
AU - Dargan, Paul I.
AU - Dayama, Anand
AU - De La Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa
AU - De La Vega, Shelley F.
AU - De Leo, Diego
AU - Degenhardt, Louisa
AU - Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja
AU - Dellavalle, Robert P.
AU - Deribe, Kebede
AU - Des Jarlais, Don C.
AU - Dessalegn, Muluken
AU - De Veber, Gabrielle A.
AU - Dharmaratne, Samath D.
AU - Dherani, Mukesh
AU - Diaz-Ortega, Jose Luis
AU - Diaz-Torne, Cesar
AU - Dicker, Daniel
AU - Ding, Eric L.
AU - Dokova, Klara
AU - Dorsey, E. Ray
AU - Driscoll, Tim R.
AU - Duan, Leilei
AU - Duber, Herbert C.
AU - Durrani, Adnan M.
AU - Ebel, Beth E.
AU - Edmond, Karen M.
AU - Ellenbogen, Richard G.
AU - Elshrek, Yousef
AU - Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich
AU - Erskine, Holly E.
AU - Eshrati, Babak
AU - Esteghamati, Alireza
AU - Estep, Kara
AU - Fürst, Thomas
AU - Fahimi, Saman
AU - Fahrion, Anna S.
AU - Faraon, Emerito Jose A.
AU - Farzadfar, Farshad
AU - Fay, Derek F.J.
AU - Feigl, Andrea B.
AU - Feigin, Valery L.
AU - Felicio, Manuela Mendonca
AU - Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad
AU - Fernandes, Jefferson G.
AU - Ferrari, Alize J.
AU - Fleming, Thomas D.
AU - Foigt, Nataliya
AU - Foreman, Kyle
AU - Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.
AU - Fowkes, F. Gerry R.
AU - Fra Paleo, Urbano
AU - Franklin, Richard C.
AU - Futran, Neal D.
AU - Gaffikin, Lynne
AU - Gambashidze, Ketevan
AU - Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho
AU - García-Guerra, Francisco Armando
AU - Garcia, Ana Cristina
AU - Geleijnse, Johanna M.
AU - Gessner, Bradford D.
AU - Gibney, Katherine B.
AU - Gillum, Richard F.
AU - Gilmour, Stuart
AU - Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed
AU - Giroud, Maurice
AU - Glaser, Elizabeth L.
AU - Goenka, Shifalika
AU - Gomez Dantes, Hector
AU - Gona, Philimon
AU - Gonzalez-Medina, Diego
AU - Guinovart, Caterina
AU - Gupta, Rahul
AU - Gupta, Rajeev
AU - Gosselin, Richard A.
AU - Gotay, Carolyn C.
AU - Goto, Atsushi
AU - Gouda, Hebe N.
AU - Graetz, Nicholas
AU - Greenwell, K. Fern
AU - Gugnani, Harish Chander
AU - Gunnell, David
AU - Gutiérrez, Reyna A.
AU - Haagsma, Juanita
AU - Hafezi-Nejad, Nima
AU - Hagan, Holly
AU - Hagstromer, Maria
AU - Halasa, Yara A.
AU - Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
AU - Hamavid, Hannah
AU - Hammami, Mouhanad
AU - Hancock, Jamie
AU - Hankey, Graeme J.
AU - Hansen, Gillian M.
AU - Harb, Hilda L.
AU - Harewood, Heather
AU - Haro, Josep Maria
AU - Havmoeller, Rasmus
AU - Hay, Roderick J.
AU - Hay, Simon I.
AU - Hedayati, Mohammad T.
AU - Heredia Pi, Ileana B.
AU - Heuton, Kyle R.
AU - Heydarpour, Pouria
AU - Higashi, Hideki
AU - Hijar, Martha
AU - Hoek, Hans W.
AU - Hoffman, Howard J.
AU - Hornberger, John C.
AU - Hosgood, H. Dean
AU - Hossain, Mazeda
AU - Hotez, Peter J.
AU - Hoy, Damian G.
AU - Hsairi, Mohamed
AU - Hu, Guoqing
AU - Huang, John J.
AU - Huffman, Mark D.
AU - Hughes, Andrew J.
AU - Husseini, Abdullatif
AU - Huynh, Chantal
AU - Iannarone, Marissa
AU - Iburg, Kim M.
AU - Idrisov, Bulat T.
AU - Ikeda, Nayu
AU - Innos, Kaire
AU - Inoue, Manami
AU - Islami, Farhad
AU - Ismayilova, Samaya
AU - Jacobsen, Kathryn H.
AU - Jassal, Simerjot
AU - Jayaraman, Sudha P.
AU - Jensen, Paul N.
AU - Jha, Vivekanand
AU - Jiang, Guohong
AU - Jiang, Ying
AU - Jonas, Jost B.
AU - Joseph, Jonathan
AU - Juel, Knud
AU - Kabagambe, Edmond Kato
AU - Kan, Haidong
AU - Karch, André
AU - Karimkhani, Chante
AU - Karthikeyan, Ganesan
AU - Kassebaum, Nicholas
AU - Kaul, Anil
AU - Kawakami, Norito
AU - Kazanjan, Konstantin
AU - Kazi, Dhruv S.
AU - Kemp, Andrew H.
AU - Kengne, Andre Pascal
AU - Keren, Andre
AU - Kereselidze, Maia
AU - Khader, Yousef Saleh
AU - Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan
AU - Khan, Ejaz Ahmed
AU - Khan, Gulfaraz
AU - Khang, Young Ho
AU - Kieling, Christian
AU - Kinfu, Yohannes
AU - Kinge, Jonas M.
AU - Kim, Daniel
AU - Kim, Sungroul
AU - Kivipelto, Miia
AU - Knibbs, Luke
AU - Knudsen, Ann Kristin
AU - Kokubo, Yoshihiro
AU - Kosen, Sowarta
AU - Kotagal, Meera
AU - Kravchenko, Michael A.
AU - Krishnaswami, Sanjay
AU - Krueger, Hans
AU - Kuate Defo, Barthelemy
AU - Kuipers, Ernst J.
AU - Kucuk Bicer, Burcu
AU - Kulkarni, Chanda
AU - Kulkarni, Veena S.
AU - Kumar, Kaushalendra
AU - Kumar, Ravi B.
AU - Kwan, Gene F.
AU - Kyu, Hmwe
AU - Lai, Taavi
AU - Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun
AU - Lalloo, Ratilal
AU - Lallukka, Tea
AU - Lam, Hilton
AU - Lan, Qing
AU - Lansingh, Van C.
AU - Larson, Heidi J.
AU - Larsson, Anders
AU - Lavados, Pablo M.
AU - Lawrynowicz, Alicia E.B.
AU - Leasher, Janet L.
AU - Lee, Jong Tae
AU - Leigh, James
AU - Leinsalu, Mall
AU - Leung, Ricky
AU - Levitz, Carly
AU - Li, Bin
AU - Li, Yichong
AU - Li, Yongmei
AU - Liddell, Chelsea
AU - Lim, Stephen S.
AU - De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira
AU - Lind, Maggie L.
AU - Lipshultz, Steven E.
AU - Liu, Shiwei
AU - Liu, Yang
AU - Lloyd, Belinda K.
AU - Lofgren, Katherine T.
AU - Logroscino, Giancarlo
AU - London, Stephanie J.
AU - Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie
AU - Lotufo, Paulo A.
AU - Lucas, Robyn M.
AU - Lunevicius, Raimundas
AU - Lyons, Ronan Anthony
AU - Ma, Stefan
AU - Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro
AU - MacIntyre, Michael F.
AU - Mackay, Mark T.
AU - MacLachlan, Jennifer H.
AU - Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos
AU - Mahdi, Abbas A.
AU - Majdan, Marek
AU - Malekzadeh, Reza
AU - Mangalam, Srikanth
AU - Mapoma, Christopher Chabila
AU - Marape, Marape
AU - Marcenes, Wagner
AU - Margono, Christopher
AU - Marks, Guy B.
AU - Marzan, Melvin Barrientos
AU - Masci, Joseph R.
AU - Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq
AU - Masiye, Felix
AU - Mason-Jones, Amanda J.
AU - Matzopolous, Richard
AU - Mayosi, Bongani M.
AU - Mazorodze, Tasara T.
AU - McGrath, John J.
AU - McKay, Abigail C.
AU - McKee, Martin
AU - McLain, Abigail
AU - Meaney, Peter A.
AU - Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
AU - Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola
AU - Melaku, Yohannes Adama
AU - Meltzer, Michele
AU - Memish, Ziad A.
AU - Mendoza, Walter
AU - Mensah, George A.
AU - Meretoja, Atte
AU - Mhimbira, Francis A.
AU - Miller, Ted R.
AU - Mills, Edward J.
AU - Misganaw, Awoke
AU - Mishra, Santosh K.
AU - Mock, Charles N.
AU - Moffitt, Terrie E.
AU - Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah
AU - Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin
AU - Mokdad, Ali H.
AU - Mola, Glen Liddell
AU - Monasta, Lorenzo
AU - Monis, Jonathan De La Cruz
AU - Montañez Hernandez, Julio C.
AU - Montico, Marcella
AU - Montine, Thomas J.
AU - Mooney, Meghan D.
AU - Moore, Ami R.
AU - Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar
AU - Moran, Andrew E.
AU - Mori, Rintaro
AU - Moschandreas, Joanna
AU - Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora
AU - Moyer, Madeline L.
AU - Mozaffarian, Dariush
AU - Mueller, Ulrich O.
AU - Mukaigawara, Mitsuru
AU - Mullany, Erin C.
AU - Murray, Joseph
AU - Mustapha, Adetoun
AU - Naghavi, Paria
AU - Naheed, Aliya
AU - Naidoo, Kovin S.
AU - Naldi, Luigi
AU - Nand, Devina
AU - Nangia, Vinay
AU - Narayan, K. M.Venkat
AU - Nash, Denis
AU - Nasher, Jamal
AU - Nejjari, Chakib
AU - Nelson, Robert G.
AU - Neuhouser, Marian
AU - Neupane, Sudan Prasad
AU - Newcomb, Polly A.
AU - Newman, Lori
AU - Newton, Charles R.
AU - Ng, Marie
AU - Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak
AU - Nguyen, Grant
AU - Nguyen, Nhung Thi Trang
AU - Nisar, Muhammad Imran
AU - Nolte, Sandra
AU - Norheim, Ole F.
AU - Norman, Rosana E.
AU - Norrving, Bo
AU - Nyakarahuka, Luke
AU - Odell, Shaun
AU - O'Donnell, Martin
AU - Ohkubo, Takayoshi
AU - Ohno, Summer Lockett
AU - Olusanya, Bolajoko O.
AU - Omer, Saad B.
AU - Opio, John Nelson
AU - Orisakwe, Orish Ebere
AU - Ortblad, Katrina F.
AU - Ortiz, Alberto
AU - Otayza, Maria Lourdes K.
AU - Pain, Amanda W.
AU - Pandian, Jeyaraj D.
AU - Panelo, Carlo Irwin
AU - Panniyammakal, Jeemon
AU - Papachristou, Christina
AU - Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.
AU - Patten, Scott B.
AU - Patton, George C.
AU - Paul, Vinod K.
AU - Pavlin, Boris
AU - Pearce, Neil
AU - Pellegrini, Carlos A.
AU - Pereira, David M.
AU - Peresson, Sophie C.
AU - Perez-Padilla, Rogelio
AU - Perez-Ruiz, Fernando P.
AU - Perico, Norberto
AU - Pervaiz, Aslam
AU - Pesudovs, Konrad
AU - Peterson, Carrie B.
AU - Petzold, Max
AU - Phillips, Bryan K.
AU - Phillips, David E.
AU - Phillips, Michael R.
AU - Plass, Dietrich
AU - Piel, Frédéric Bernard
AU - Poenaru, Dan
AU - Polinder, Suzanne
AU - Popova, Svetlana
AU - Poulton, Richie G.
AU - Pourmalek, Farshad
AU - Prabhakaran, Dorairaj
AU - Qato, Dima
AU - Quezada, Amado D.
AU - Quistberg, D. Alex
AU - Rabito, Felicia
AU - Rafay, Anwar
AU - Rahimi, Kazem
AU - Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa
AU - Rahman, Sajjad U.R.
AU - Raju, Murugesan
AU - Rakovac, Ivo
AU - Rana, Saleem M.
AU - Refaat, Amany
AU - Remuzzi, Giuseppe
AU - Ribeiro, Antonio L.
AU - Ricci, Stefano
AU - Riccio, Patricia M.
AU - Richardson, Lee
AU - Richardus, Jan Hendrik
AU - Roberts, Bayard
AU - Roberts, D. Allen
AU - Robinson, Margaret
AU - Roca, Anna
AU - Rodriguez, Alina
AU - Rojas-Rueda, David
AU - Ronfani, Luca
AU - Room, Robin
AU - Roth, Gregory A.
AU - Rothenbacher, Dietrich
AU - Rothstein, David H.
AU - Rowley, Jane T.F.
AU - Roy, Nobhojit
AU - Ruhago, George M.
AU - Rushton, Lesley
AU - Sambandam, Sankar
AU - Søreide, Kjetil
AU - Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya
AU - Saha, Sukanta
AU - Sahathevan, Ramesh
AU - Sahraian, Mohammad Ali
AU - Sahle, Berhe Weldearegawi
AU - Salomon, Joshua A.
AU - Salvo, Deborah
AU - Samonte, Genesis May J.
AU - Sampson, Uchechukwu
AU - Sanabria, Juan Ramon
AU - Sandar, Logan
AU - Santos, Itamar S.
AU - Satpathy, Maheswar
AU - Sawhney, Monika
AU - Saylan, Mete
AU - Scarborough, Peter
AU - Schöttker, Ben
AU - Schmidt, Jürgen C.
AU - Schneider, Ione J.C.
AU - Schumacher, Austin E.
AU - Schwebel, David C.
AU - Scott, James G.
AU - Sepanlou, Sadaf G.
AU - Servan-Mori, Edson E.
AU - Shackelford, Katya
AU - Shaheen, Amira
AU - Shahraz, Saeid
AU - Shakh-Nazarova, Marina
AU - Shangguan, Siyi
AU - She, Jun
AU - Sheikhbahaei, Sara
AU - Shepard, Donald S.
AU - Shibuya, Kenji
AU - Shinohara, Yukito
AU - Shishani, Kawkab
AU - Shiue, Ivy
AU - Shivakoti, Rupak
AU - Shrime, Mark G.
AU - Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora
AU - Silberberg, Donald H.
AU - Silva, Andrea P.
AU - Simard, Edgar P.
AU - Sindi, Shireen
AU - Singh, Jasvinder A.
AU - Singh, Lavanya
AU - Sioson, Edgar
AU - Skirbekk, Vegard
AU - Sliwa, Karen
AU - So, Samuel
AU - Soljak, Michael
AU - Soneji, Samir
AU - Soshnikov, Sergey S.
AU - Sposato, Luciano A.
AU - Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.
AU - Stanaway, Jeffrey D.
AU - Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi
AU - Steenland, Kyle
AU - Stein, Claudia
AU - Steiner, Caitlyn
AU - Stevens, Antony
AU - Stöckl, Heidi
AU - Straif, Kurt
AU - Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos
AU - Sturua, Lela
AU - Sunguya, Bruno F.
AU - Swaminathan, Soumya
AU - Swaroop, Mamta
AU - Sykes, Bryan L.
AU - Tabb, Karen M.
AU - Takahashi, Ken
AU - Talongwa, Roberto Tchio
AU - Tan, Feng
AU - Tanne, David
AU - Tanner, Marcel
AU - Tavakkoli, Mohammad
AU - Te Ao, Braden
AU - Teixeira, Carolina Maria
AU - Templin, Tara
AU - Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah
AU - Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman
AU - Thomas, Bernadette A.
AU - Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.
AU - Thrift, Amanda G.
AU - Thurston, George D.
AU - Tillmann, Taavi
AU - Tirschwell, David L.
AU - Tleyjeh, Imad M.
AU - Tonelli, Marcello
AU - Topouzis, Fotis
AU - Towbin, Jeffrey A.
AU - Toyoshima, Hideaki
AU - Traebert, Jefferson
AU - Tran, Bach X.
AU - Truelsen, Thomas
AU - Trujillo, Ulises
AU - Trillini, Matias
AU - Tsala Dimbuene, Zacharie
AU - Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis
AU - Tuzcu, E. Murat
AU - Ubeda, Clotilde
AU - Uchendu, Uche S.
AU - Ukwaja, Kingsley N.
AU - Undurraga, Eduardo A.
AU - Vallely, Andrew J.
AU - Van De Vijver, Steven
AU - Van Gool, Coen H.
AU - Varakin, Yuri Y.
AU - Vasankari, Tommi J.
AU - Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales
AU - Vavilala, Monica S.
AU - Venketasubramanian, N.
AU - Vijayakumar, Lakshmi
AU - Villalpando, Salvador
AU - Violante, Francesco S.
AU - Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich
AU - Wagner, Gregory R.
AU - Waller, Stephen G.
AU - Wang, Jian Li
AU - Wang, Linhong
AU - Wang, Xiao Rong
AU - Wang, Yanping
AU - Warouw, Tati Suryati
AU - Weichenthal, Scott
AU - Weiderpass, Elisabete
AU - Weintraub, Robert G.
AU - Wenzhi, Wang
AU - Werdecker, Andrea
AU - Wessells, K. Ryan R.
AU - Westerman, Ronny
AU - Whiteford, Harvey A.
AU - Wilkinson, James D.
AU - Williams, Thomas Neil
AU - Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret
AU - Wolfe, Charles D.A.
AU - Wolock, Timothy M.
AU - Woolf, Anthony D.
AU - Wong, John Q.
AU - Wright, Jonathan L.
AU - Wulf, Sarah
AU - Wurtz, Brittany
AU - Xu, Gelin
AU - Yang, Yang C.
AU - Yano, Yuichiro
AU - Yatsuya, Hiroshi
AU - Yip, Paul
AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro
AU - Yoon, Seok Jun
AU - Younis, Mustafa
AU - Yu, Chuanhua
AU - Yun Jin, Kim
AU - Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed
AU - Zamakhshary, Mohammed Fouad
AU - Zeeb, Hajo
AU - Zhang, Yong
AU - Zhao, Yong
AU - Zheng, Yingfeng
AU - Zhu, Jun
AU - Zhu, Shankuan
AU - Zonies, David
AU - Zou, Xiao Nong
AU - Zunt, Joseph R.
AU - Vos, Theo
AU - Lopez, Alan D.
AU - Murray, Christopher J.L.
AU - Alcalá-Cerra, G.
AU - Hu, H.
AU - Karam, N.
AU - Sabin, N.
AU - Temesgen, A. M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
PY - 2015/1/10
Y1 - 2015/1/10
N2 - Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
AB - Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84920703518&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84920703518&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2
DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2
M3 - Article
C2 - 25530442
AN - SCOPUS:84920703518
SN - 0140-6736
VL - 385
SP - 117
EP - 171
JO - The Lancet
JF - The Lancet
IS - 9963
ER -