Numbers of people with HIV/AIDS reported and not reported to surveillance in Japan

Background: Trends in the numbers of Japanese patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) reported to the HIV/AIDS surveillance system in Japan were examined. We attempted to estimate the cumulative number of Japanese with HIV, including people with HIV not reported to the surveillance. Methods: Data from the HIV/AIDS surveillance in Japan up to the end of 2002 were available. The number of unreported HIV cases was estimated using the back-calculation method. To evaluate this method, the number of reported HIV cases up to 1996 (before highly active antiretroviral treatments were widely available in Japan) was compared with the number estimated by the same method. Results: The number of AIDS cases who were initially reported as having AIDS without having been reported as HIV-infected markedly increased as did the number of reported HIV cases. The number of AIDS cases who had been initially reported as HIV-infected and who were then reported as AIDS progression increased up to 1996 but decreased in the period of 1997-2002. The cumulative number of people with HIV at the end of 2002 was estimated as 14,000, which was 4.2 times higher than the number of reported HIV cases. The cumulative number of HIV cases reported up to 1996 was nearly equal to the number estimated by the above-mentioned method. Conclusions: HIV infection would appear to be spreading widely among Japanese population. The number of HIV cases actually reported to surveillance might still be low.