Background. Our aim was to assess plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) as a predictor of cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and no history of CV events. Methods. This was a prospective observational cohort study of 252 patients with predialysis CKD. CV events were defined as CV death, acute coronary syndrome, and hospitalization for worsening heart failure, stroke, and aortic dissection. Results. During a median follow-up period of 63 months, 36 CV events occurred. On Cox stepwise multivariate analysis, plasma NGAL and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) were significant predictors of CV events. Kaplan-Meier incidence rates of CV event-free survival at 5 years were 96.6%, 92.9%, 85.9%, and 61.3%, respectively, among quartiles of plasma NGAL (P < 0. 0001). The C-index for the receiver-operating characteristic curves for CV events was greater when plasma NGAL was added to an established risk model (0.801, 95% CI 0.717-0.885), compared to the model without plasma NGAL (0.746, 95% CI 0.653-0.840, P = 0.0 21). Conclusion. Elevated plasma NGAL could predict future CV events in CKD patients with no history of CV events and add incremental value to the established risk model.
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