Prediction of future trends of HIV infection and AIDS in Japan

Current status and future trends of HIV infection and AIDS in Japan were estimated based on AIDS surveillance data up until 1992, excluding HIV infection from blood products and blood-borne transmission. The coverage rate of reports of HIV infection was estimated as the proportion of the reported AIDS cases who are also included in reports of HIV infection. Current numbers of HIV infected persons were then estimated to be the reported numbers divided by the coverage rate. Future numbers of HIV infected persons were predicted by extrapolation. Future numbers of AIDS cases were predicted based on the predicted numbers of HIV infected persons and the incubation distribution. The results were as follows: 1) The coverage rate of the reports of HIV infection was estimated to be 11.5%. 2) The numbers of HIV infected persons were estimated to be 2,900 in Japanese and 4,500 in foreigners by the end of 1992, and are predicted to be 7,700 in Japanese and 15,500 in foreigners by the end of 1997. 3) The numbers of AIDS cases were reported to be 125 in Japanese and 52 in foreigners by the end of 1992, and are predicted to be 1,100 in Japanese and 1,600 in foreigners (including AIDS cases developed after return to home country) by the end of 1997.