Predictive ability of laboratory indices for liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C after the eradication of hepatitis C virus

Liver fibrosis remains an important risk factor for hepatocarcinogenesis in patients with chronic hepatitis C even after the eradication of hepatitis C virus (HCV). However, it is difficult to estimate liver fibrosis based on liver biopsy after the eradication of HCV.We investigated the ability of laboratory indices to predict liver fibrosis in patients with sustained virologic response (SVR) to antiviral therapy. Three laboratory liver fibrosis indices (aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio index (APRI), FIB-4 index, and Forns index) were calculated based on data at the time of initial pretreatment liver biopsy and at second liver biopsy performed approximately 5 years after SVR in 115 patients who underwent serial liver biopsies. The indices at the time of initial biopsy were compared to histological degree of liver fibrosis in initial biopsy, and laboratory indices at the time of second liver biopsy were compared to the degree of fibrosis in second biopsy. In both comparisons, there were significant increases in all 3 indices with the increase of liver fibrosis grade as assessed in liver biopsy specimens. All 3 indices at the time of second biopsy were able to predict moderate to advanced (METAVIR score F2-4) and advanced (F3-4) fibrosis on liver biopsy, with the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve >0.8 and the accuracy >70%. All 3 laboratory indices of fibrosis accurately reflected liver fibrosis in patients with SVR for 5 years despite the normalization of serum liver transaminase activity and the lack of liver inflammation.